# Proposal: Crimson Leaf Holdings
Submitted by: Edgar Chen, CEO, Crimson Leaf Holdings
Task ID: 5d4d5eff-7851-4351-8a14-220ad7720d91
Status: AWAITING DAVID'S APPROVAL

---

## Executive Summary
**1. PROPOSED COMPANY**
*   **Company:** Crimson Leaf
*   **Purpose:** Crimson Leaf will drive innovation in AI by developing cutting-edge tools for evaluating and benchmarking Large Language Models (LLMs).
*   **Gap:** Crimson Leaf currently lacks a dedicated tool for systematic evaluation of model performance, hindering its ability to objectively compare and refine LLM-powered content generation.

**2. PROBLEM STATEMENT**
Crimson Leaf cannot currently benchmark Foreman-created probe tasks effectively, relying on subjective assessment, making it difficult to objectively measure and improve the quality and consistency of its AI content. Without a standardized probe, optimal model selection and iterative improvements cannot be effectively implemented within cost and timing constraints.

**3. MARKET OPPORTUNITY**
The AI market is experiencing rapid growth, evidenced by its \$150.2 billion size in 2023 and a projected 36.8% CAGR from 2024 to 2032 [AI Market Size, Share, Growth, Report 2024](https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/artificial-intelligence-ai-market-100114). The LLM Testing market presents a significant opportunity, valued at \$1.3 billion in 2024 with a projected 28.3% CAGR from 2024-2032 [AI Model Testing Market Size Global Insights on Latest Trends, Drivers 2032](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-model-testing-market-size-global-insights-latest-trends-drivers-10efc), indicating a pressing need for robust LLM evaluation tools.

**4. PROPOSED SOLUTION**

The Foreman Probe project will develop a comprehensive suite of tasks to rigorously assess LLM capabilities.

*   **First 30 Days:**
    *   Define key performance indicators (KPIs) relevant to Crimson Leaf's AI content generation goals (e.g., factual accuracy, coherence, creativity, style consistency).
    *   Design initial probe tasks targeting specific LLM weaknesses (e.g., handling complex reasoning, avoiding bias, generating diverse content).
    *   Select initial LLMs to benchmark: This will include the key AI content publishing models.
*   **First 90 Days:**
    *   Implement the probe tasks as an automated pipeline, leveraging APIs for model access and frameworks for evaluation (e.g., RAGAS, TruLens).
    *   Establish a baseline for each LLM across all defined KPIs.
    *   Iterate on probe tasks based on initial findings, continuously refining the assessment.

**5. STRATEGIC FIT**
By objectively evaluating LLM performance, Crimson Leaf can strategically select and fine-tune models to optimize content quality, increase efficiency, and ultimately enhance profitability in AI publishing. The resulting benchmarking data and evaluation framework will directly inform content strategies, model selection, and iterative improvements, supporting Crimson Leaf's mission to profitably publish high-quality AI generated content.

---

## Research Sources
(Paste the "Complete Source List" from the research synthesis)
Okay, I understand. I will compile all the search findings into a structured research synthesis, as requested.

## Research Synthesis

### Key Statistics

*   [AI market size in 2023]: $150.2 billion -- Source: [AI Market Size, Share, Growth, Report 2024](https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/artificial-intelligence-ai-market-100114)
*   [AI market projected growth (2024-2032)]: 36.8% CAGR -- Source: [AI Market Size, Share, Growth, Report 2024](https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/artificial-intelligence-ai-market-100114)
*   [Estimated cost per token for OpenAI models]: Varies considerably.  Some estimates place it around $0.0001 to $0.0003 per 1,000 tokens for certain models, but prices are dynamic. -- Source: [How Much Does OpenAI API Cost? A Full Breakdown - Last Mile AI](https://lastmileai.com/openai-api-cost/)
*   [GPT-4 Context Window]: 128,000 tokens (larger versions) -- Source:  [GPT-4 - OpenAI](https://openai.com/gpt/4)
*   [Key AI application areas]: Natural Language Processing, Machine Learning, Computer Vision -- Source: [AI Market Size, Share, Growth, Report 2024](https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/artificial-intelligence-ai-market-100114)
*   [Percentage of organizations deploying AI applications]: 35% (in 2023) -- Source: [AI Market Size, Share, Growth, Report 2024](https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/artificial-intelligence-ai-market-100114)
*   [LLM Testing Market Size (2024)]: $1.3 billion -- Source: [AI Model Testing Market Size Global Insights on Latest Trends, Drivers 2032](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-model-testing-market-size-global-insights-latest-trends-drivers-10efc)
*   [LLM Testing Market Growth (2024-2032)]: 28.3% CAGR -- Source: [AI Model Testing Market Size Global Insights on Latest Trends, Drivers 2032](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-model-testing-market-size-global-insights-latest-trends-drivers-10efc)

### Competitor Landscape

*   **LangChain**: Framework for building applications powered by LLMs | Open Source, commercial support available | Complex setup for simple tasks [LangChain](https://www.langchain.com/)
*   **LlamaIndex**: Data framework to connect custom data sources to LLMs | Open Source | Requires users to manage their own data storage and indexing [LlamaIndex  v0.10.22](https://www.llamaindex.ai/)
*   **Arthur AI**: Model monitoring, bias detection, explainability | Pricing not public | Focus on enterprise, potentially slower deployment [Top 5 LLM Evaluation platforms in 2024 - Towards AI](https://towardsai.net/p/artificial-intelligence/top-5-llm-evaluation-platforms-in-2024)
*   **Arize AI**:  Model monitoring and observability | Pricing not public |  Focus on larger enterprises [Top 5 LLM Evaluation platforms in 2024 - Towards AI](https://towardsai.net/p/artificial-intelligence/top-5-llm-evaluation-platforms-in-2024)
*   **Weights & Biases (W&B)**:  MLOps platform with LLM experiment tracking and evaluation |  Offers free tier, paid plans for teams and enterprise | Primarily focuses on model development and training, requires deeper technical expertise. [Top 5 LLM Evaluation platforms in 2024 - Towards AI](https://towardsai.net/p/artificial-intelligence/top-5-llm-evaluation-platforms-in-2024)
*   **Galileo AI**:  Debugging platform for AI models specializing in error analysis and model improvement | Unclear pricing | Niche focus [Top 5 LLM Evaluation platforms in 2024 - Towards AI](https://towardsai.net/p/artificial-intelligence/top-5-llm-evaluation-platforms-in-2024)

### Case Studies Found
No case studies found -- structural feasibility analysis follows in risk section.

### Technology Findings

*   **OpenAI API:** A key tool for interacting with LLMs such as GPT-4.  Requires API keys and understanding of token limits. [GPT-4 - OpenAI](https://openai.com/gpt/4)
*   **Vector Databases (e.g., Pinecone, Chroma):**  Used for efficient storage and retrieval of embeddings for Retrieval-Augmented Generation (RAG). [LlamaIndex  v0.10.22](https://www.llamaindex.ai/)
*   **Frameworks for Evaluation (e.g., RAGAS, TruLens):** Help automate the evaluation of LLM applications across metrics like faithfulness, answer relevance, and context relevance.  [Top 5 LLM Evaluation platforms in 2024 - Towards AI](https://towardsai.net/p/artificial-intelligence/top-5-llm-evaluation-platforms-in-2024)
*   **Python:** Common programming language for interacting with LLMs and related tools.
*   **APIs for Model Access:**  Specifically mentions Hugging Face, OpenAI, and Cohere as providers.
*   **API keys** necessary for access to LLMs.
*   **Monitoring Tools**: Arize, Arthur, Weights & Biases, Galileo AI, Fiddler.
*   **RAG** important methodology to address hallucinatory responses.
*   **Evaluation metrics** important criteria to accurately test LLMs

### Complete Source List

[1] [AI Market Size, Share, Growth, Report 2024](https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/artificial-intelligence-ai-market-100114) -- General AI Market size, growth, application areas, key players.
[2] [How Much Does OpenAI API Cost? A Full Breakdown - Last Mile AI](https://lastmileai.com/openai-api-cost/) -- Information on OpenAI API Costs.
[3] [GPT-4 - OpenAI](https://openai.com/gpt/4) -- Details on OpenAI's GPT-4 model capabilities and context window.
[4] [AI Model Testing Market Size Global Insights on Latest Trends, Drivers 2032](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-model-testing-market-size-global-insights-latest-trends-drivers-10efc) -- Statistics on the AI testing market.
[5] [LangChain](https://www.langchain.com/) -- Description of LangChain's functionality and weaknesses.
[6] [LlamaIndex  v0.10.22](https://www.llamaindex.ai/) -- Details on LlamaIndex as a data framework for LLMs.
[7] [Top 5 LLM Evaluation platforms in 2024 - Towards AI](https://towardsai.net/p/artificial-intelligence/top-5-llm-evaluation-platforms-in-2024) --  Overview of several competitors in the LLM evaluation space (Arthur AI, Arize AI, Weights & Biases, Galileo AI).

---

## Cost Model and Financial Projections
Okay, here's the Cost Model and Financial Projections section for the Foreman Probe project, incorporating the research synthesis where applicable:

### COST MODEL AND FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS

This section outlines the projected costs associated with developing and operating the Foreman Probe, along with a preliminary cost-benefit analysis. Given that the AI market is substantial ($150.2 billion in 2023) and the LLM testing market is growing rapidly (28.3% CAGR), a viable tool in this space offers significant potential.

**1. SETUP COSTS:**

*   **Gitea Repo Creation:** Minimal cost.  Primarily involves staff time to set up and configure the repository. Estimated at **$0**.
*   **Template Development:** This is a significant initial investment. Estimate: 2 engineers for 4 weeks each @ $10,000/week = **$80,000** The creation of task templates requires careful design and iteration for optimal LLM evaluation. This also includes initial research from existing literature and fine-tuning for the specific probes we implement.
*   **Agent Configuration:**  Fine-tuning and configuration of agents to automate the task creation and execution process will require expert AI engineers. Considering costs for software licenses and resources, the cost will be: 1 engineer for 2 weeks @ $10,000/week = **$20,000**.

**Total Estimated Setup Costs: $100,000**

**2. RECURRING OPERATIONAL COSTS:**

*   **Tasks Per Week (Steady State):**  Assume 100 tasks per week to start, scaling up as adoption increases.
*   **Average Cost Per Task:** This is driven primarily by API costs from LLM providers like OpenAI. Based on research, the cost per 1,000 tokens can range from $0.0001 to $0.0003 ([How Much Does OpenAI API Cost? A Full Breakdown - Last Mile AI](https://lastmileai.com/openai-api-cost/)).  Assuming an average task requires 50,000 tokens (this will vary greatly depending on the task complexity) this results in cost of tokens of: 50,000 / 1,000 * $0.0003 = $0.015, which we round up to $0.02 to account for miscellaneous infrastructure costs such as storage and compute time. This value is an assumption that should be validated by testing. Therefore, a conservative estimate is **$0.02 per task.**
*   **Weekly API Cost Projection:** 100 tasks/week * $0.02/task = **$2.00/week**
*   **Monthly API Cost Projection:** $2.00/week * 4 weeks/month = **$8.00/month**
*   **Infrastructure Costs:** Includes server space, database maintenance, and monitoring tools.  Estimate: **$500/month** for initial scaling and growth.
*   **Ongoing Labor Costs (Monitoring and Maintenance):** Assume 0.5 engineers to oversee the system, troubleshoot issues, and refine task templates. 0.5 engineer for 4 weeks = **$20,000/month**.

**Total Estimated recurring costs: $20,508/month**

**3. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS:**

*   **Cost of NOT Having This Company:** This the reduction in productivity in teams trying to internally evaluate their model quality without a standardized benchmark to compare against. The lack of a dedicated benchmarking tool could lead to:
    *   Slower model development cycles
    *   Higher error rates/lower-quality outputs from LLMs being deployed
    *   Increased risk of bias and fairness issues going undetected
    *   Loss of competitive advantage due to slower innovation.
*   **Break-Even Point:** This will depend on the pricing model of the final product. Assuming a subscription model, and a customer profile of a medium enterprise with a hundred users at $10 per user for a monthly $1000 subscription, the break-even point will be: $100,000 (initial expenses) / ($1,000 - $8.00) = **100 months.** This is a rough calculation based on initial costs/projected costs. *This rough projection is based on conservative assumptions. If we sell for more or acquire many clients it could accelerate rapidly. This model doesn't include any projections for revenue from API fees or other sources of income.*

**4. BUDGET CONSTRAINT CHECK:**

*   **Self-Funding Loop Potential:**  The feasibility of generating a self-funding loop depends on capturing a significant share of the LLM testing market. Given the projected growth of this area (28.3% CAGR per ([AI Model Testing Market Size Global Insights on Latest Trends, Drivers 2032](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-model-testing-market-size-global-insights-latest-trends-drivers-10efc))), there's potential to achieve this with effective marketing and product differentiation. Revenue from subscriptions (as outlined above) can be reinvested into development, marketing, and infrastructure. The low API costs coupled with effective labor costs mean that the margins from recurring revenue are expected to be significant.

**Important Considerations and Next steps:**

*   These figures are preliminary estimates. A more detailed cost model will require further analysis and data gathering, particularly around task complexity, API usage patterns, and pricing strategies.
*   Pilot projects are recommended to validate the average cost per task and refine the overall cost model.
*   Exploration of alternative LLM providers and pricing plans can help optimize API costs.
*   Continuous monitoring of infrastructure costs is essential to identify potential areas for optimization.

---

## Risk Analysis and Alternatives Considered
Okay, I will now formulate the Risk Analysis and Alternatives Considered sections for the Foreman Probe project proposal, incorporating the research synthesis.

**1. RISKS OF PROCEEDING -- rate each: Low / Medium / High**

*   **Technical Feasibility (Medium):** LLM evaluation is a rapidly evolving field. Ensuring the Foreman Probe accurately and reliably measures LLM capabilities requires ongoing research and adaptation to new models and evaluation metrics.
*   **Data Security and Privacy (Medium):** Handling data used to prompt and evaluate LLMs carries inherent risks. Secure data storage, anonymization techniques, and compliance with relevant regulations (e.g., GDPR, CCPA) are crucial.
*   **Cost Overruns (Medium):** Unexpected API usage costs from LLM providers (OpenAI, etc.) or the need for additional infrastructure could lead to budget overruns. Careful monitoring and cost optimization strategies are essential. The costs are highly volatile.
*   **Competition (Medium):** The LLM testing and evaluation market is competitive. Differentiating the Foreman Probe and demonstrating clear value is necessary for success.
*   **Model Drift (Medium):** LLMs are constantly being updated. The probe's benchmarks and metrics may become outdated, requiring frequent updates and re-calibration.
*   **Accuracy/Bias (Medium):** LLMs are known to exhibit biases. Foreman Probe could inadvertently reinforce harmful and damaging biases.
*   **Lack of adoption (Low):** Foreman users don't use it, and prefer internal benchmarks.
*   **Maintenance burden (Medium):** Must be integrated into CI/CD

**2. RISKS OF NOT PROCEEDING -- what gets worse? Rate each.**

*   **Lack of Objective LLM Evaluation (High):** Without the Foreman Probe, model selection and evaluation would rely on subjective assessments, potentially leading to suboptimal performance and increased risk.
*   **Missed Opportunity to Improve LLM Performance (High):** The insights gained from the Foreman Probe could identify areas for improvement in LLM performance and capabilities, which would be missed without it.
*   **Increased Reliance on External LLM Providers (Medium):** Without internal evaluation capabilities, there's a greater dependence on the claims and benchmarks provided by external LLM vendors.
*   **Slower Adoption of LLMs (Low):** The lack of rigorous testing might slow down the adoption of new LLMs.
*   **Opportunity cost (High):** Lack of offering or using new state-of-the-art LLMs.

**3. COMPETITIVE RISK**
Use competitor data from the synthesis. Cite with \[Title](URL).

The LLM testing and evaluation market is heating up, with dedicated testing companies like Arthur AI and Arize AI as well as MLOps platforms like Weights & Biases that also offer testing.  The LLM testing market will grow at a CAGR of 28.3% ([AI Model Testing Market Size Global Insights on Latest Trends, Drivers 2032](https://www.linkedin.com/pulse/ai-model-testing-market-size-global-insights-latest-trends-drivers-10efc)). LangChain and LlamaIndex provide some limited support for LLM evaluations within their broader scope as application development frameworks, but have usability problems.  If we do not develop the Foreman Probe, we risk losing ground to competitors who provide more comprehensive and objective LLM evaluation tools. Specifically, we would lack the capability for objective measurement and continuous monitoring.

**4. ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED**

A. **New template in existing company** -- why rejected?
Templates are good for quickly creating static reports, but lack the dynamism and interactivity needed for ongoing LLM evaluation. They also would add to the already complex template situation.

B. **One-time manual report** -- why rejected?
A manual report would provide a snapshot in time, but it would be costly and not scalable to the ongoing LLM evaluations needed to keep pace with the rapidly evolving field.

C. **Expand existing subsidiary** -- why rejected?
We have no existing subsidiary with the capabilities or focus to implement this project.

D. **Wait** -- why rejected?
The LLM market is growing rapidly (36.8% CAGR ([AI Market Size, Share, Growth, Report 2024](https://www.fortunebusinessinsights.com/industry-reports/artificial-intelligence-ai-market-100114)), and the LLM testing market even faster. Delaying the development of the Foreman Probe would allow competitors to gain a stronger foothold and capture market share.

**5. RECOMMENDATION**

Proceed? State the minimum viable version.

I recommend proceeding with the Foreman Probe project.

**Minimum Viable Version:**

The minimum viable version should focus on:

1.  **Core Functionality:** Implement the ability to define tasks, run them against LLMs, and calculate basic evaluation metrics (e.g., accuracy, faithfulness, relevance) based on ground truth data.
2.  **Integration:** Seamless integration with the Foreman platform for easy user access and data sharing. Focus on a small number of high-priority models.
3.  **Basic Reporting:** Provide simple dashboards and visualizations to display evaluation results and track performance over time.
4.  **Focus on a Single Use Case:** Initially, concentrate the Foreman Probe on evaluating LLMs for a narrow, well-defined use case within the Foreman ecosystem.

This incremental approach will allow us to validate the core value proposition, gather user feedback, and iterate on the Foreman Probe's functionality and features.

---

## Proposed Company Specification
Okay, I understand. Here's the proposed company specification for "Foreman Probe" within Crimson Leaf, based on the provided information and instructions:

**1. COMPANY RECORD**

*   company_id: TBD (David assigns)
*   name: Foreman Probe
*   slug: foreman_probe
*   parent_company: crimson_leaf
*   mission: To rigorously benchmark and evaluate the capabilities of Large Language Models (LLMs) using tasks derived from the Foreman system.
*   tagline: Probing the depths of AI potential.
*   type: Research
*   status: active

**2. PROPOSED AGENTS**

*   **Role Title:** Probe Architect
    *   **Name:** Amelia Sharma
    *   **Personality:** Amelia is a meticulous and innovative researcher with a deep understanding of LLM architectures and evaluation methodologies. She's driven by data and a passion for uncovering the strengths and weaknesses of AI systems.
    *   **Responsibilities:** Designs and develops probe tasks, defines evaluation metrics, analyzes results, and iterates on probe design for maximum effectiveness.
    *   **Model Recommendation:** GPT-4
    *   **Supported Templates:** `probe_creation`, `evaluation_analysis`, `report_generation`

*   **Role Title:** Foreman Integration Specialist
    *   **Name:** Kenji Tanaka
    *   **Personality:** Kenji is a practical and methodical engineer with strong expertise in Foreman and its API. He is passionate about automation and ensuring smooth data flow.
    *   **Responsibilities:** Integrates Foreman data into the probe generation pipeline, ensures accurate data extraction, and maintains the connection between Foreman and the evaluation system.
    *   **Model Recommendation:** GPT-3.5-turbo
    *   **Supported Templates:** `foreman_data_extraction`, `data_validation`,  `pipeline_automation`

*   **Role Title:** Results Analyst
    *   **Name:** Lena Petrova
    *   **Personality:** Lena is a data-driven analyst with a knack for identifying patterns and insights from complex datasets. She's a strong communicator and passionate about presenting findings clearly and concisely.
    *   **Responsibilities:** Analyzes probe results, generates comprehensive reports, identifies trends in LLM performance, and presents findings to stakeholders.
    *   **Model Recommendation:** GPT-4
    *   **Supported Templates:** `evaluation_analysis`, `report_generation`, `visualization_creation`

**3. PROPOSED TEMPLATES (MVP Set)**

*   **Template Name:** `probe_creation`
    *   **Purpose:** Generates specific probe tasks based on a given Foreman event, resource, or configuration.
    *   **Key Steps:**
        1.  Receive Foreman data (e.g., provisioning errors, resource utilization).
        2.  Translate data into a relevant probe task (e.g., "Explain why this provisioning failed," "Suggest ways to optimize resource utilization").
        3.  Define expected output and evaluation criteria.
    *   **Trigger:** New Foreman event or scheduled data extraction.
    *   **Estimated Cost per Run:** $0.05

*   **Template Name:** `foreman_data_extraction`
    *   **Purpose:** Extracts relevant data from Foreman using API calls.
    *   **Key Steps:**
        1.  Authenticate with Foreman API.
        2.  Formulate API request based on defined criteria.
        3.  Parse and format the API response.
    *   **Trigger:** Scheduled data extraction or triggered by `probe_creation`.
    *   **Estimated Cost per Run:** $0.01

*   **Template Name:** `evaluation_analysis`
    *   **Purpose:** Analyzes the LLM's response to a probe task.
    *   **Key Steps:**
        1.  Receive LLM response and expected output.
        2.  Compare the LLM's response to the expected output using defined evaluation metrics (e.g., accuracy, completeness, coherence).
        3.  Generate a score and explanation of the LLM's performance.
    *   **Trigger:** Completion of an LLM probe task.
    *   **Estimated Cost per Run:** $0.03

*   **Template Name:** `report_generation`
    *   **Purpose:** Creates a summary report of LLM performance across multiple probe tasks.
    *   **Key Steps:**
        1.  Aggregate results from multiple `evaluation_analysis` runs.
        2.  Generate visualizations of key metrics (e.g., average accuracy, error rate).
        3.  Write a summary of key findings and recommendations.
    *   **Trigger:** Periodic (e.g., weekly, monthly) or triggered by a specific event (e.g., completion of a large batch of probes).
    *   **Estimated Cost per Run:** $0.10

**4. SCHEDULE**

*   **Daily:** `foreman_data_extraction` - Extracts the latest data from the Foreman instance.
*   **As-Needed:** `probe_creation` - Triggered when new interesting events occur in Foreman.
*   **As-Needed:** `evaluation_analysis` - Triggered immediately after an LLM processes a probe.
*   **Weekly:** `report_generation` - Generates a weekly summary of LLM performance.

**5. 90-DAY SUCCESS CRITERIA**

*   **Criterion 1:** Successfully generate and evaluate *at least* 1000 probe tasks derived from Foreman data.
*   **Criterion 2:** Establish a stable and automated data pipeline between Foreman and the LLM evaluation system.
*   **Criterion 3:** Identify *at least* three significant strengths and three significant weaknesses of the evaluated LLMs based on the probe results, documented in the weekly reports.
*   **Criterion 4:** Reduce the average cost per probe creation and evaluation cycle to under $0.10.

**6. DEPENDENCIES**

*   Access to a Foreman instance with relevant data.
*   API keys and authentication credentials for Foreman API.
*   Access to the target LLM(s) for evaluation.
*   Established evaluation metrics and scoring system.
*   Infrastructure to run and store data.

---

## Signature Block
Edgar Chen certifies this proposal meets Crimson Leaf Holdings governance requirements:
- No existing subsidiary duplicates this charter
- No existing template or tool can solve this gap
- No proposal for this company has been submitted in the last 30 days
- A full business plan with 5-source web research and inline citations is provided

This proposal requires David Baity's explicit approval before any action is taken.