From 19c95d186560d2ef44eee3f5d9bb76e094e7b577 Mon Sep 17 00:00:00 2001
From: PAE <pae@localhost>
Date: Thu, 30 Apr 2026 10:38:55 +0000
Subject: [PATCH] research: business plan task={task.id}

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+# HALT — CONTEXT MISSING
+
+Orion cannot produce an investor-grade business plan without the **core deliverable**: the **task message describing the specific opportunity**.
+
+The prompt you've sent contains:
+
+✅ **Structural guidance** — format, citation rules, decision gates  
+✅ **Context frameworks** — Crimson Leaf's charter, portfolio state, governance model  
+✅ **Research placeholders** — `{biz_data_1}`, `{biz_data_2}`, `{biz_data_3}` (unfilled)  
+❌ **The actual opportunity** — no opportunity description, market niche, or problem statement  
+❌ **Research data** — the three research datasets are missing  
+
+---
+
+## What Orion Needs to Proceed
+
+Please provide:
+
+1. **Opportunity Name & Description**
+   - What niche/market/product is this?
+   - Who is the target customer?
+   - Why should Crimson Leaf incubate this (vs. extend an existing Tenant or use tools)?
+
+2. **Market Analysis Data** (fills `{biz_data_1}`)
+   - TAM size, growth rate, key drivers
+   - Customer pain points and existing solutions
+   - Any URLs/citations from prior research
+
+3. **Business Model & GTM Research** (fills `{biz_data_2}`)
+   - Competitor pricing and unit economics
+   - Go-to-market channels (affiliate, content, paid acquisition, etc.)
+   - Industry benchmarks (CAC, conversion rates, etc.)
+
+4. **Risk & Failure Research** (fills `{biz_data_3}`)
+   - Common failure modes in this market
+   - Regulatory or operational constraints
+   - Historical case studies (successful or failed ventures)
+
+---
+
+## Next Step
+
+**Please resubmit with:**
+- The specific opportunity you want planned
+- The three research datasets (or point me to where they live in Gitea/RAG)
+
+Once those arrive, Orion will produce a **complete, cited, investor-ready business plan** with 10+ sources, explicit assumptions, and a clear FUND/PILOT/REJECT recommendation.
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