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sprint85: research pipeline -- market_intelligence 5-pass, business_plan, affiliate_intelligence, opportunity_scan news mode, orion identity update

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2026-04-29 23:32:22 -04:00
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templates/affiliate_intelligence.yml Normal file
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name: affiliate_intelligence
description: "Orion researches a specific Amazon affiliate / review site opportunity. Produces a content calendar and monthly revenue model. Spawned by opportunity_scan when an affiliate opportunity is identified."
debug: true
model: power
system: agent_prompt
agent_prompt:
- "= identity.md"
sections:
- agent
- project
- rag
- message
- instructions
steps:
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
output_key: aff_search_1
hint: |
You are researching an Amazon affiliate opportunity in the niche described
in the task message above.
Formulate ONE search query to find:
- Amazon Associates commission rates for this product category
- Top-selling products in this category (by review count or bestseller rank)
- Average selling price range
Include "Amazon Associates commission rate" and the niche name in your query.
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: aff_search_1
mode: research
max_results: 8
fetch_pages: 3
optional: true
output_key: aff_data_1
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
output_key: aff_search_2
hint: |
Pass 2 -- Existing review sites.
Formulate ONE query to find who is already winning with review content
in this niche. Look for:
- Top-ranked review sites for this category
- How much content they have, what their top pages cover
- Signs of affiliate revenue (disclosure notices, "best of" pages)
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: aff_search_2
mode: research
max_results: 8
fetch_pages: 3
optional: true
output_key: aff_data_2
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
output_key: aff_search_3
hint: |
Pass 3 -- Keyword and content opportunity.
Formulate ONE query to find long-tail buying-intent keywords this niche:
- "best [product type] under $X"
- "[product type] vs [product type] comparison"
- "[product type] for [specific use case] review [year]"
Look for gaps: questions that get asked but have no great answer online.
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: aff_search_3
mode: research
max_results: 6
fetch_pages: 2
optional: true
output_key: aff_data_3
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
output_key: aff_search_4
hint: |
Pass 4 -- Community pain points and buying signals.
Formulate ONE query to find what buyers in this niche say on Reddit or forums:
- What they cannot find good reviews for
- What makes them distrust existing review sites
- What would make a review site their go-to resource
Append "site:reddit.com" to force community results.
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: aff_search_4
mode: research
max_results: 6
fetch_pages: 2
optional: true
output_key: aff_data_4
- type: think
max_tokens: 10000
output_key: affiliate_brief_body
hint: |
You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
Produce a structured affiliate opportunity brief for the niche in the task message.
=== PASS 1: AMAZON COMMISSION AND PRODUCT DATA ===
{aff_data_1}
=== END PASS 1 ===
=== PASS 2: EXISTING REVIEW SITES ===
{aff_data_2}
=== END PASS 2 ===
=== PASS 3: KEYWORD AND CONTENT GAPS ===
{aff_data_3}
=== END PASS 3 ===
=== PASS 4: COMMUNITY BUYING SIGNALS ===
{aff_data_4}
=== END PASS 4 ===
Cite every data point with [Title](URL). Label unverified estimates clearly.
# Affiliate Intelligence Brief: [Niche Name]
---
## 1. Amazon Associates Overview
- Product category: [exact Amazon category name]
- Commission tier: [%] -- [cite Amazon Associates rate card if found]
- Average product price range: $[X] to $[Y]
- Top 5 products to review (by bestseller rank or review count):
1. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why this is a strong review target]
2. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why]
3. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why]
4. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why]
5. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why]
## 2. Competitive Landscape
[Top 3-5 existing review sites in this niche.
For each: name, URL, estimated content volume, what they do well, what they miss.
Cite each site URL directly.]
White space: [What the existing sites are NOT covering well.
This is where Crimson Leaf enters.]
## 3. Content Opportunity Map
Top 10 article templates for this niche (these are the articles to write first):
1. "Best [product type] in [year] -- [N] Options Reviewed" -- [buying intent signal]
2. "[Product A] vs [Product B] -- Which Is Worth It?" -- [head-to-head comparison]
3. "Best [product type] Under $[price]" -- [budget segment]
4. "Best [product type] for [specific use case]" -- [niche down]
5. "[Product type] Buyer's Guide [year] -- What to Look For" -- [informational + conversion]
6-10. [Additional article templates based on keyword gaps found in Pass 3]
## 4. Monthly Revenue Model
Assumptions (state all -- these are estimates unless a source is cited):
- Articles published per month: [N]
- Months to meaningful traffic (SEO ramp): [N months]
- Average monthly traffic per article at steady state: [X visits]
Source: [cite if found, otherwise "(industry average estimate)"]
- Affiliate conversion rate: [Y%]
Source: [cite if found, otherwise "(Amazon Associates average: 1-3%)"]
- Average order value: $[Z]
- Commission rate: [P%]
Revenue per article per month: X visits x Y% conversion x $Z AOV x P% commission = $[result]
Monthly revenue at [N] articles: $[result per article] x N articles = $[total]
Timeline:
- Month 1-3: $0 (building content, no traffic yet)
- Month 4-6: $[estimate] (first traffic, first conversions)
- Month 7-12: $[estimate] (ramp toward steady state)
- Month 13+: $[steady state] target (if [N] articles published)
Break-even: [N articles needed at $[revenue per article] to cover $[monthly cost]]
## 5. Crimson Leaf Fit Assessment
- What CL agents can do today: [write reviews, research products, publish to Gitea]
- What needs to be built: [domain setup, WordPress or static site, affiliate tracking links]
- David's required involvement: [minimal -- approve domain purchase, set up affiliate account]
- Speed advantage: [CL can publish N articles per week vs a solo human writer's 1-2]
## 6. Recommendation
**START NOW** / **RESEARCH FURTHER** / **PASS**
Rationale: [2-3 sentences grounded in the data above.
If START NOW: what makes this niche worth entering in the next 30 days?
If RESEARCH FURTHER: what specific question must be answered?
If PASS: what structural barrier makes the economics unviable?]
---
## Sources
[All URLs cited above, numbered.
Format: N. [Title](URL) -- domain.com]
BUSINESS_PLAN_FLAG: [write "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: true" if recommendation is START NOW,
otherwise "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: false"]
- type: document
source_step: affiliate_brief_body
dest_path: "deliverables/affiliate-intelligence/affiliate-brief-{task.id}.md"
commit_msg: "research: affiliate brief task={task.id}"
- type: close
rag_update: true
- type: tool
action: enqueue_strategy
optional: true
condition: "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: true"
params:
company_slug: "crimson_leaf"
project_slug: "incubation"
task_type: "business_plan"
content: "Develop a full business plan for the affiliate/review site opportunity from affiliate intelligence brief {task.id}. The full brief is in the deliverables folder. Build on it -- do not repeat the affiliate research."
agent_name: "orion"
- type: reply
target: channel
channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
hint: |
Write a 2-3 line summary of the affiliate intelligence brief just completed.
Include: niche, recommendation (START NOW/RESEARCH FURTHER/PASS),
the monthly revenue target at steady state,
and the top article template to write first.
Example: "Affiliate brief complete: [niche] -- START NOW.
Steady-state target: $[X]/month at [N] articles.
First article: [title template]."
adjudication:
enabled: true
pass_threshold: 70
deliverable_type: analysis
criteria:
revenue_model:
weight: 40
description: "Monthly revenue model is present with stated assumptions. Break-even calculation shown. Numbers are labeled as estimates or cited."
content_specificity:
weight: 35
description: "Top 10 article templates are specific and actionable -- not generic placeholders. Products are named."
competitive_analysis:
weight: 25
description: "At least 3 existing review sites identified with actual URLs and gap analysis."

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templates/business_plan.yml Normal file
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name: business_plan
description: "Orion develops a full investor-grade business plan for a PROCEED opportunity. Spawned by market_intelligence when recommendation is PROCEED."
debug: true
model: power
system: agent_prompt
agent_prompt:
- "= identity.md"
sections:
- agent
- project
- rag
- message
- instructions
steps:
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
output_key: biz_search_1
hint: |
You are developing a business plan for the opportunity described in the task message.
The market analysis has already been completed -- your task is to find real-world
business model examples to make the plan concrete and credible.
Formulate ONE search query to find:
- Businesses that successfully built this type of company from zero
- What they did in year 1, their first revenue milestones, how they acquired customers
- Real founder stories or post-mortems with financial details
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: biz_search_1
mode: research
max_results: 6
fetch_pages: 3
optional: true
output_key: biz_data_1
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
output_key: biz_search_2
hint: |
Pass 2 -- Go-to-market channels for this business type.
Formulate ONE query to find:
- What marketing channels work in this niche (SEO, paid, affiliate, social, email)
- Realistic customer acquisition costs (CAC) and conversion rates
- How long it takes to see results from each channel
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: biz_search_2
mode: research
max_results: 6
fetch_pages: 2
optional: true
output_key: biz_data_2
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
output_key: biz_search_3
hint: |
Pass 3 -- Risk intelligence.
Formulate ONE query to find failures and warnings in this niche:
- "failed [niche type]" or "[niche] startup mistakes" or "why [business model] fails"
- What founders warn other founders about
- Common pitfalls that kill businesses in this space before month 6
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: biz_search_3
mode: research
max_results: 6
fetch_pages: 2
optional: true
output_key: biz_data_3
- type: think
max_tokens: 15000
output_key: business_plan_body
hint: |
You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
Produce a full, investor-grade business plan for the opportunity in the task message.
=== MARKET ANALYSIS (foundation -- already completed) ===
[The market analysis for this opportunity has already been committed to Gitea.
Use the opportunity details from the task message as your foundation.
Do not repeat basic market research -- expand on it with the data below.]
=== END MARKET ANALYSIS ===
=== BUSINESS MODEL EXAMPLES ===
{biz_data_1}
=== END BUSINESS MODEL EXAMPLES ===
=== GO-TO-MARKET CHANNEL RESEARCH ===
{biz_data_2}
=== END GTM RESEARCH ===
=== RISK AND FAILURE RESEARCH ===
{biz_data_3}
=== END RISK RESEARCH ===
CITATION RULES:
- Every financial figure must have a stated assumption.
- Every benchmark (CAC, conversion rate, time-to-rank) must cite a source [Title](URL)
if one was found in the research above.
- If no source is available, label clearly: "(industry estimate -- unverified)"
- Target at least 10 cited URLs across the full document.
- Do NOT invent URLs.
WRITE THE BUSINESS PLAN IN THE FOLLOWING FORMAT.
This is a deliverable David will read to decide whether to fund this venture.
It must be complete, specific, and honest about uncertainty.
# Business Plan: [Opportunity Name]
Version 1.0 -- Prepared by Orion, Crimson Leaf Holdings Research Division
---
## Executive Summary
[250 words max. Answer these 4 questions in order:
1. What is this business and who does it serve?
2. Why does this opportunity exist now?
3. What does Crimson Leaf need to invest (time, cost, initial effort)?
4. When is break-even and what does steady-state look like?]
## Problem and Solution
[What specific gap exists in the market?
What does the target customer fail to get from current options?
How does this business solve that gap in a defensible way?
Cite community pain points from the market analysis if available.]
## Market Analysis Summary
[2-3 paragraph summary of the market opportunity.
TAM, growth rate, key drivers -- all cited.
This is a summary, not a repeat -- keep it under 300 words.]
## Business Model
[Exactly how does this business make money?
Revenue streams: primary, secondary.
Pricing model: subscription / one-time / affiliate commission / advertising.
Unit economics: revenue per customer, cost to serve, gross margin estimate.
Cite real pricing benchmarks from research above.]
## Revenue Projections
State all assumptions explicitly before each number.
### Month 1-3 (Ramp)
- Assumption: [what is being built, no revenue yet or minimal]
- Projected revenue: $[X] -- based on [assumption]
- Cost: $[Y] -- [what this covers]
### Month 4-6 (Initial Traction)
- Assumption: [N articles/products/units published, traffic starting]
- Projected revenue: $[X] -- based on [rate] x [volume] x [conversion]
- Cost: $[Y]
### Month 7-12 (Scaling)
- Assumption: [steady-state content/product velocity]
- Projected revenue: $[X] -- based on [rate] x [volume] x [conversion]
- Cost: $[Y]
### Break-Even Analysis
- Monthly fixed cost: $[X]
- Revenue per unit (article/product/subscriber): $[Y]
- Break-even units: [X / Y = N units]
- Break-even timeline: Month [N] at [assumed growth rate]
## Competitive Analysis
[Who wins in this space today, who loses, and why Crimson Leaf wins on AI-speed and cost.
Reference the competitive landscape from the market analysis.
Cite competitor URLs where available.]
## Go-to-Market Plan (First 90 Days)
[Based on the GTM channel research above, what is the actual plan?]
### Week 1-4: Setup
- [ ] [Specific task -- domain, affiliate account, Gitea repo, agent config]
- [ ] [Specific task]
- [ ] [Specific task]
### Month 2: First Content / Product Wave
- [ ] [Specific deliverable -- N articles, N products, first campaign]
- [ ] [Specific task]
### Month 3: Measure and Iterate
- [ ] [What metrics are checked]
- [ ] [What triggers a scale decision vs a cut decision]
- [ ] Scale threshold: [specific number -- e.g., "If monthly revenue exceeds $200 by day 90, scale"]
- [ ] Cut threshold: [specific number -- e.g., "If traffic is under 100 visits/month by day 90, reassess"]
## Operations Plan
[Who does what? Be specific about CL agent roles vs David's responsibilities.]
- Orion: [ongoing research role]
- Content agents (CLP equivalent): [what they produce]
- David: [minimal human-in-the-loop requirements -- e.g., approve new affiliate categories, fund hosting]
- Automation level: [what can run fully automated vs what needs approval]
## Risk Register
[Top 5 risks based on failure research above. Format: Risk | Severity | Mitigation]
| Risk | Severity (H/M/L) | Mitigation |
|------|-----------------|------------|
[Fill 5 rows -- cite failure sources where available]
## 90-Day Decision Gate
At day 90, this venture is evaluated against these criteria:
- Minimum viable: [specific metric -- traffic, revenue, content volume]
- If minimum viable is NOT met: [specific action -- pause, pivot, or close]
- If minimum viable IS met: [specific next investment or scale decision]
## Final Recommendation
**FUND** / **PILOT FIRST** / **DO NOT FUND**
Rationale: [2-3 sentences. Ground the recommendation in the data above.
If FUND: what makes the risk acceptable?
If PILOT FIRST: what small experiment resolves the uncertainty?
If DO NOT FUND: what fundamental barrier makes this a poor investment?]
---
## Sources
[All URLs cited above, numbered, with domain.
Format: N. [Title](URL) -- domain.com
Minimum 10 sources for a FUND recommendation.]
- type: document
source_step: business_plan_body
dest_path: "deliverables/business-plans/business-plan-{task.id}.md"
commit_msg: "research: business plan task={task.id}"
- type: close
rag_update: true
- type: reply
target: channel
channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
hint: |
Write a 3-4 line summary of the business plan just completed.
Include: opportunity name, final recommendation (FUND/PILOT FIRST/DO NOT FUND),
the projected 12-month revenue range (conservative to optimistic),
and one key risk or insight from the risk register.
Example: "Business plan complete: [name] -- FUND. 12-month projection $X-$Y.
Key risk: [risk] -- mitigated by [approach]."
adjudication:
enabled: true
pass_threshold: 75
deliverable_type: plan
criteria:
financial_realism:
weight: 40
description: "Revenue projections state explicit assumptions -- no round numbers without basis. Break-even math is shown."
citation_density:
weight: 35
description: "At least 10 real URLs cited inline. Every benchmark cites a source or is labeled as an estimate."
actionability:
weight: 25
description: "90-day plan has specific tasks and decision thresholds, not vague goals. FUND/PILOT/PASS is grounded in data."

228
templates/market_intelligence.yml
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@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
name: market_intelligence
description: "Orion researches a specific market opportunity with web search and produces a structured analysis document committed to Gitea. Spawned by opportunity_scan."
description: "Orion researches a specific market opportunity with 5-pass web research and produces a cited analysis document. Spawned by opportunity_scan."
debug: true
model: power
system: agent_prompt
@@ -22,17 +22,17 @@ steps:
The market opportunity to research is described in the task message above.
Formulate ONE precise web search query to find:
- Market size and growth rate for this niche
- Who the key players are and what they offer
- Total Addressable Market size and growth rate for this niche
- Industry reports, analyst data, credible statistics
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else. No preamble, no labels.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: search_query_1
mode: research
max_results: 6
fetch_pages: 3
max_results: 8
fetch_pages: 4
optional: true
output_key: market_data_1
@@ -40,10 +40,10 @@ steps:
max_tokens: 200
output_key: search_query_2
hint: |
Your first search covered market size and key players.
Now formulate ONE focused query to find:
- Successful products in this niche, what they charge, who buys them
- Consumer pain points or unmet needs documented online
Pass 2 -- Competitive landscape.
Formulate ONE query to find the top 5 competitors in this niche:
- What they sell, what they charge, who buys from them
- Reviews, feature comparisons, pricing pages
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
@@ -51,72 +51,171 @@ steps:
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: search_query_2
mode: research
max_results: 5
fetch_pages: 2
max_results: 8
fetch_pages: 3
optional: true
output_key: market_data_2
- type: think
max_tokens: 6000
max_tokens: 200
output_key: search_query_3
hint: |
Pass 3 -- News and recent developments.
Formulate ONE query to surface what has happened in this niche
in the last 30-60 days. Look for:
- New products, launches, regulatory changes
- Funding events, acquisitions, market shifts
- "Why now" signals that make this a timely opportunity
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: search_query_3
mode: news
max_results: 8
optional: true
output_key: market_data_3
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
output_key: search_query_4
hint: |
Pass 4 -- Community voice and buyer pain points.
Formulate ONE query to find what real buyers or users say about
this niche on Reddit, Quora, or forums. Append "site:reddit.com OR site:quora.com"
to force community results.
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: search_query_4
mode: research
max_results: 6
fetch_pages: 2
optional: true
output_key: market_data_4
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
output_key: search_query_5
hint: |
Pass 5 -- Revenue and monetization models.
Formulate ONE query to find how businesses in this niche make money:
- Subscription vs one-time vs affiliate vs advertising
- Actual revenue numbers if public, pricing benchmarks
- What the most profitable players do differently
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: search_query_5
mode: research
max_results: 6
fetch_pages: 2
optional: true
output_key: market_data_5
- type: think
max_tokens: 12000
output_key: market_analysis_body
hint: |
You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
Produce a structured market analysis document for the opportunity in the task message.
Produce a research-grade market analysis document for the opportunity in the task message.
=== PRIMARY RESEARCH (market size / players) ===
=== PASS 1: MARKET SIZE AND TAM ===
{market_data_1}
=== END PRIMARY RESEARCH ===
=== END PASS 1 ===
=== SECONDARY RESEARCH (products / gaps / pricing) ===
=== PASS 2: COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND PRICING ===
{market_data_2}
=== END SECONDARY RESEARCH ===
=== END PASS 2 ===
Cite every data point with [Title](URL) inline.
CITATION RULES:
- ONLY cite real URLs from the research data above (the [Title](URL) links in the research results).
- Do NOT invent URLs, placeholders, or use "project.rag" as a source.
- If a section has no real research data, write "No web data found. Structural analysis:" and continue.
- Every statistic must be followed by its source [Title](URL).
=== PASS 3: NEWS AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS ===
{market_data_3}
=== END PASS 3 ===
Structure the document exactly as follows:
=== PASS 4: COMMUNITY VOICE AND BUYER PAIN POINTS ===
{market_data_4}
=== END PASS 4 ===
=== PASS 5: REVENUE AND MONETIZATION MODELS ===
{market_data_5}
=== END PASS 5 ===
CITATION RULES -- READ CAREFULLY:
- Every statistic must be followed immediately by [Title](URL) inline citation.
- Use ONLY real URLs found in the research passes above.
- Do NOT invent URLs, use placeholders, or cite "project.rag" as a source.
- If a section has no real web data, write: "(estimate - no web source found)"
and state the assumption explicitly.
- Target at least 8 real cited URLs across the full document.
Structure the document EXACTLY as follows. Do not skip sections.
# Market Analysis: [opportunity name from task message]
---
## 1. Market Overview
- Total Addressable Market: [size, growth rate, source]
- Key drivers: [2-3 forces growing this market]
- Key risks: [2-3 risks or headwinds]
- Total Addressable Market: [size, growth rate -- cite source]
- Key market drivers: [2-3 structural forces, each cited if possible]
- Key risks and headwinds: [2-3 specific risks]
## 2. Target Audience
- Primary buyer: [specific demographic or job role]
- Buyer behavior: [how they discover and purchase in this niche]
- Pain points: [what they cannot get today]
## 2. Recent Developments
[What happened in this niche in the last 30-60 days from Pass 3 news data.
If no news found, state "No significant developments found in the news pass."
Cite each item with [Title](URL).]
## 3. Competitive Landscape
[Top 3-5 players: name | product | price | audience | strengths | weaknesses]
- White space: [what none of them do well that CL could own]
## 3. Target Audience
- Primary buyer: [specific demographic, job role, or persona]
- Buyer behavior: [how they discover, evaluate, and purchase in this niche]
- Pain points: [what they cannot get today -- cite community sources from Pass 4]
## 4. Crimson Leaf Positioning
## 4. Competitive Landscape
Top competitors from Pass 2:
| Name | Product | Price | Audience | Strengths | Weaknesses |
|------|---------|-------|----------|-----------|------------|
[fill in table -- cite competitor URLs]
White space: [what none of them do well that Crimson Leaf could own]
## 5. Monetization Models
[How does the money flow in this niche -- from Pass 5.
Subscription vs one-time vs affiliate vs advertising.
Include specific revenue figures or rates if found. Cite each.]
## 6. Crimson Leaf Positioning
- Recommended entry point: [specific niche within the broader market]
- Differentiation: [how CL would be distinct from existing players]
- Differentiation: [how CL would be distinct, leveraging AI-speed and cost advantage]
- Time-to-market: [realistic estimate given current CL capabilities]
## 5. Revenue Potential
- Conservative (12-month): [number with assumptions]
- Base case (12-month): [number with assumptions]
- Optimistic (12-month): [number with assumptions]
## 7. Revenue Projections (12 months)
- Conservative: [number with stated assumptions]
- Base case: [number with stated assumptions]
- Optimistic: [number with stated assumptions]
Note: If revenue data is weak, state assumptions explicitly rather than guessing.
## 6. Recommendation
PROCEED / INVESTIGATE FURTHER / PASS
## 8. Recommendation
**PROCEED** / **INVESTIGATE FURTHER** / **PASS**
Rationale: [2-3 sentences backing the recommendation with data from above]
Rationale: [2-3 sentences grounded in data from above.
If PROCEED: what makes this the right time?
If INVESTIGATE FURTHER: what specific question must be answered first?
If PASS: what structural barrier makes this unviable?]
---
## Sources
[List all cited URLs with titles]
[List every URL cited above, numbered, with title and domain.
Format: N. [Title](URL) -- domain.com]
---
BUSINESS_PLAN_FLAG: [write "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: true" if recommendation is PROCEED,
otherwise write "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: false"]
- type: document
source_step: market_analysis_body
@@ -126,26 +225,47 @@ steps:
- type: close
rag_update: true
- type: tool
action: enqueue_strategy
optional: true
condition: "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: true"
params:
company_slug: "crimson_leaf"
project_slug: "incubation"
task_type: "business_plan"
content: "Develop a full business plan for the PROCEED opportunity identified in market analysis {task.id}. The full market analysis is in the deliverables folder. Use it as your foundation -- do not repeat research already done."
agent_name: "orion"
- type: tool
action: enqueue_strategy
optional: true
params:
company_slug: "crimson_leaf"
project_slug: "incubation"
task_type: "opportunity_scan"
content: "Follow-up scan triggered by completed market analysis {task.id}. Prioritize opportunities adjacent to the niche just researched."
agent_name: "orion"
- type: reply
target: channel
channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
hint: |
Write a 2-3 line summary of the market analysis just completed.
Include: topic researched, recommendation (PROCEED/INVESTIGATE FURTHER/PASS),
and one key data point with citation.
Example: "Market analysis complete: [topic] -- PROCEED. [Key finding with [Title](URL)]."
one key data point with citation, and whether a full business plan has been queued.
Example: "Market analysis complete: [topic] -- PROCEED. [Key finding [Title](URL)]. Business plan queued."
adjudication:
enabled: true
pass_threshold: 70
deliverable_type: analysis
criteria:
depth:
weight: 40
description: "All 6 sections covered with specific data points -- no empty sections"
accuracy:
citation_density:
weight: 35
description: "Claims backed by research citations or clearly labeled as estimates -- no invented statistics"
description: "At least 8 real URLs cited inline -- no invented URLs or placeholders"
section_completeness:
weight: 35
description: "All 8 sections present with substantive data -- no empty sections"
actionability:
weight: 25
description: "Recommendation (PROCEED/INVESTIGATE FURTHER/PASS) is specific and grounded in the analysis"
weight: 30
description: "PROCEED/INVESTIGATE FURTHER/PASS recommendation is specific and grounded in cited data"

181
templates/opportunity_scan.yml
View File

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
name: opportunity_scan
description: "Crimson Leaf opportunity research -- Orion hunts trends and white-space every 6 hours."
description: "Crimson Leaf opportunity research -- Orion runs 4 targeted searches every hour: KDP charts, trending news, AI content market, and affiliate/review site opportunities."
debug: true
model: power
system: agent_prompt
@@ -11,98 +11,138 @@ sections:
- agent
- project
- rag
- prior_results
- message
- instructions
builders:
prior_results: |
*** CURRENT PORTFOLIO ***
{steps[0].text}
*** WEB RESEARCH RESULTS ***
{steps[2].text}
(If web results are empty, use your training knowledge for market analysis.)
steps:
- type: tool
action: get_portfolio_report
output_key: portfolio_data
- type: think
max_tokens: 2000
hint: |
You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
Your job is to find the next big opportunity. Think about:
- What content formats are trending? (books, courses, newsletters, podcasts)
- What niches are underserved in AI-generated content?
- What seasonal trends are coming up?
Formulate the single best search query to find market opportunities.
On the LAST LINE, write exactly:
SEARCH QUERY: [your query]
# --- Search 1: Amazon KDP bestseller charts ---
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: last_text
input: "Amazon KDP Kindle bestseller list romance fiction top 100 this week new releases"
mode: research
max_results: 8
fetch_pages: 3
optional: true
output_key: kdp_trends
# --- Search 2: Trending news topics with content potential ---
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input: "trending news topics viral stories this week content niche opportunities 2025"
mode: news
max_results: 8
optional: true
output_key: news_trends
# --- Search 3: AI content and publishing market trends ---
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input: "AI content writing publishing trends 2025 self publishing income opportunities Substack newsletter"
mode: research
max_results: 8
fetch_pages: 2
optional: true
output_key: ai_content_trends
# --- Search 4: Amazon affiliate and review site opportunities ---
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input: "Amazon Associates affiliate review site high commission products niche 2025 best categories to review"
mode: research
max_results: 8
fetch_pages: 3
optional: true
output_key: affiliate_trends
- type: think
max_tokens: 6000
output_key: opportunity_analysis
hint: |
You are Orion, the Visionary. You have the portfolio report and web research above.
You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
You have four intelligence feeds below. Synthesize them into a ranked opportunity list.
Cross-reference what CL already produces with what the market wants.
Think like Elon Musk -- first principles, not incrementalism.
=== PORTFOLIO (what CL already has) ===
{portfolio_data}
Structure your analysis as:
1. TOP 3 OPPORTUNITIES -- ranked by revenue potential vs. effort
For each: what is it, why now, how CL could produce it, estimated effort
2. PORTFOLIO GAPS -- what are our subsidiaries NOT doing that they should be?
3. ACTION ITEMS -- specific things David needs to do
=== KDP BESTSELLER SIGNALS ===
{kdp_trends}
(If empty: use your knowledge of current romance/fiction charts.)
Format action items as: "David, [verb]: [details]"
Be bold. Don't hedge. If an opportunity is real, say so with conviction.
=== NEWS AND VIRAL TRENDS ===
{news_trends}
(If empty: use your knowledge of current cultural moment.)
=== AI CONTENT AND PUBLISHING MARKET ===
{ai_content_trends}
=== AMAZON AFFILIATE AND REVIEW SITE OPPORTUNITIES ===
{affiliate_trends}
(Note: Amazon Associates pays 1-10% commission on referred purchases. A review
site publishing AI-written product reviews with affiliate links is a distinct
revenue stream from book sales -- lower effort, passive income.)
Evaluate every signal against what CL can actually BUILD today:
- CL has AI writing workers (books, articles, reviews)
- CL has web search capability
- CL has Gitea for publishing content
- CL does NOT yet have a website, storefront, or affiliate account
Structure your analysis:
### BOOK / CONTENT OPPORTUNITIES
Top 2 niches where CL should write books RIGHT NOW based on KDP charts or news trends.
For each: niche, why now (cite a signal), estimated monthly revenue if in top 100.
### AFFILIATE / REVIEW SITE OPPORTUNITY
Best product category for a CL review site (based on affiliate feed).
Consider: commission rate, search volume, competition, how AI-written reviews compete.
Be specific -- "kitchen gadgets under $30" beats "electronics".
Flag if this requires a new company (Crimson Leaf Reviews) or fits under an existing one.
### PORTFOLIO GAPS
What are our subsidiaries NOT doing that they should be doing this week?
### ACTION ITEMS
Format: "David, [verb]: [specific action]"
Include at least one action item about the affiliate opportunity if it looks viable.
Be direct. Cite data from the feeds. Don't hedge.
- type: think
max_tokens: 600
output_key: opportunity_1_content
hint: |
From the opportunity analysis above, extract the SINGLE TOP opportunity.
From the opportunity analysis above, extract the TOP BOOK/CONTENT opportunity.
Write a complete market_intelligence task brief for it. This brief will be
sent as the task message to Orion for deep research.
Write a market_intelligence task brief:
- What the opportunity is (1-2 sentences, cite the signal)
- Why now (timing -- what just happened in the market)
- Research questions: What does the KDP top 100 look like in this niche?
Who are the top 5 authors and what do they charge? What tropes are selling?
- CL entry angle: which agent writes this, which project slug to use
The brief must include:
- What the opportunity is (1-2 sentences)
- Why now (1 sentence on timing/signal)
- What market data to find (2-3 specific questions to answer)
- What CL's potential entry angle might be (1 sentence)
If the analysis found NO compelling new opportunity (all were already covered
in the portfolio or too vague), output exactly: none
Output ONLY the brief text or the word none. No preamble.
If no compelling book opportunity was found, output exactly: none
Output ONLY the brief or the word none. No preamble.
- type: think
max_tokens: 600
output_key: opportunity_2_content
hint: |
From the opportunity analysis above, extract the SECOND-BEST opportunity
(not the same as opportunity 1).
From the opportunity analysis above, extract the AFFILIATE/REVIEW SITE opportunity.
Write a complete market_intelligence task brief for it using the same format:
- What the opportunity is
- Why now
- What market data to find
- CL's potential entry angle
Write an affiliate_intelligence task brief:
- What the product category is and why it was selected
- Amazon Associates commission rate for this category if found in the research
- Key questions to answer: Who are the top review sites in this niche?
What content gaps exist? How many articles needed for $500/month in commissions?
- What Crimson Leaf would need to build: domain, content volume, affiliate account
If there is no distinct second opportunity worth researching, output exactly: none
Output ONLY the brief text or the word none. No preamble.
If no compelling affiliate opportunity was found, output exactly: none
Output ONLY the brief or the word none. No preamble.
- type: tool
action: enqueue_strategy
@@ -119,34 +159,35 @@ steps:
params:
company_slug: "crimson_leaf"
project_slug: "incubation"
task_type: "market_intelligence"
task_type: "affiliate_intelligence"
content: "{opportunity_2_content}"
- type: think
max_tokens: 100
output_key: dispatch_summary
hint: |
Count how many research tasks were commissioned this cycle.
Look at opportunity_1_content and opportunity_2_content above.
If both are not "none": output "Commissioned 2 research tasks."
If only opportunity_1_content is not "none": output "Commissioned 1 research task."
If both are "none": output "No research tasks commissioned -- no new opportunities found."
If both are not "none": output "Commissioned 2 research tasks (market_intelligence + affiliate_intelligence)."
If only opportunity_1_content is not "none": output "Commissioned 1 research task (book opportunity -- market_intelligence)."
If only opportunity_2_content is not "none": output "Commissioned 1 research task (affiliate opportunity -- affiliate_intelligence)."
If both are "none": output "No research tasks commissioned -- no new signals found."
Output ONLY that sentence.
- type: reply
target: channel
channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
hint: |
Write a 3-5 line opportunity scan summary for Orion's report.
Write a 4-6 line opportunity scan summary.
Start with: "Opportunity scan complete. {dispatch_summary}"
Then summarize:
- The top opportunity found (or "no new opportunities" if none)
- One key market signal with a citation if available
Then cover:
- Top book/content signal (niche + why now, cite source if available)
- Top affiliate/review site signal (category + commission rate if found)
- One portfolio gap identified
- One action item for David
Be concise and action-oriented.
Be specific. Cite real data from the research. No filler.
adjudication:
enabled: false

4
templates/pulse_check.yml
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@@ -65,7 +65,9 @@ steps:
hint: |
Write a 2-line status update for Discord.
Line 1: "Pulse [HEALTHY/ATTENTION/IDLE] -- <N> projects reviewed"
Line 2: one sentence noting anything flagged (failures, idle projects, workers down) or "All systems nominal."
Line 2: one sentence noting anything flagged (failures, idle projects, workers down,
cost anomalies -- flag if total_spend_usd_today > $1.00 or any company
cost_per_task_usd_30d > $5.00) or "All systems nominal."
Use data from the portfolio report. 2 lines max. No extra commentary.
- type: reply

12
templates/strategic_review.yml
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@@ -76,7 +76,9 @@ steps:
- If you are Edgar (The Operator): Focus on execution health and metrics only.
Are companies executing? Are we moving toward the mission success criteria?
Report: CLP chapter velocity, CLM campaign status, adjudication pass rates.
Report: CLP chapter velocity, CLM campaign status, adjudication pass rates,
and total_spend_usd_30d from the portfolio report. If cost is up vs last cycle,
flag it. If cost_per_polished_chapter_usd_30d > $0.50, flag it.
DO NOT discuss what company to propose -- proposals are handled by a separate
gate after this debate. The mission charter already defines what gaps exist
and what companies are authorized. Your job here is execution reporting.
@@ -105,9 +107,11 @@ steps:
Structure:
1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- one paragraph on portfolio health and mission progress
2. MISSION GAP AUDIT -- assess each gap from the mission charter. Is Gap 1 (CLO)
still the top priority? Has anything changed that elevates a different gap?
3. CRITICAL ISSUES -- things needing immediate attention
2. MISSION GAP AUDIT -- assess each gap from the mission charter. Is Gap 3 (KDP
pipeline) now the top priority since Gap 1 (CLO) is resolved? Has revenue
arrived yet? Cite total_royalty_usd_30d from the portfolio report if available.
3. CRITICAL ISSUES -- things needing immediate attention (include cost overruns:
if total_spend_usd_30d > $20.00 or cost_per_polished_chapter > $0.50, flag it)
4. OPPORTUNITIES -- ranked by priority
5. ACTION ITEMS -- specific tasks for David:
"David, [verb]: [details]"