sprint85: research pipeline -- market_intelligence 5-pass, business_plan, affiliate_intelligence, opportunity_scan news mode, orion identity update

templates/affiliate_intelligence.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,254 @@
+name: affiliate_intelligence
+description: "Orion researches a specific Amazon affiliate / review site opportunity. Produces a content calendar and monthly revenue model. Spawned by opportunity_scan when an affiliate opportunity is identified."
+debug: true
+model: power
+system: agent_prompt
+
+agent_prompt:
+  - "= identity.md"
+
+sections:
+  - agent
+  - project
+  - rag
+  - message
+  - instructions
+
+steps:
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: aff_search_1
+    hint: |
+      You are researching an Amazon affiliate opportunity in the niche described
+      in the task message above.
+
+      Formulate ONE search query to find:
+      - Amazon Associates commission rates for this product category
+      - Top-selling products in this category (by review count or bestseller rank)
+      - Average selling price range
+
+      Include "Amazon Associates commission rate" and the niche name in your query.
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: aff_search_1
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 8
+    fetch_pages: 3
+    optional: true
+    output_key: aff_data_1
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: aff_search_2
+    hint: |
+      Pass 2 -- Existing review sites.
+      Formulate ONE query to find who is already winning with review content
+      in this niche. Look for:
+      - Top-ranked review sites for this category
+      - How much content they have, what their top pages cover
+      - Signs of affiliate revenue (disclosure notices, "best of" pages)
+
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: aff_search_2
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 8
+    fetch_pages: 3
+    optional: true
+    output_key: aff_data_2
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: aff_search_3
+    hint: |
+      Pass 3 -- Keyword and content opportunity.
+      Formulate ONE query to find long-tail buying-intent keywords this niche:
+      - "best [product type] under $X"
+      - "[product type] vs [product type] comparison"
+      - "[product type] for [specific use case] review [year]"
+
+      Look for gaps: questions that get asked but have no great answer online.
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: aff_search_3
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 6
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: aff_data_3
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: aff_search_4
+    hint: |
+      Pass 4 -- Community pain points and buying signals.
+      Formulate ONE query to find what buyers in this niche say on Reddit or forums:
+      - What they cannot find good reviews for
+      - What makes them distrust existing review sites
+      - What would make a review site their go-to resource
+
+      Append "site:reddit.com" to force community results.
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: aff_search_4
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 6
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: aff_data_4
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 10000
+    output_key: affiliate_brief_body
+    hint: |
+      You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
+      Produce a structured affiliate opportunity brief for the niche in the task message.
+
+      === PASS 1: AMAZON COMMISSION AND PRODUCT DATA ===
+      {aff_data_1}
+      === END PASS 1 ===
+
+      === PASS 2: EXISTING REVIEW SITES ===
+      {aff_data_2}
+      === END PASS 2 ===
+
+      === PASS 3: KEYWORD AND CONTENT GAPS ===
+      {aff_data_3}
+      === END PASS 3 ===
+
+      === PASS 4: COMMUNITY BUYING SIGNALS ===
+      {aff_data_4}
+      === END PASS 4 ===
+
+      Cite every data point with [Title](URL). Label unverified estimates clearly.
+
+      # Affiliate Intelligence Brief: [Niche Name]
+
+      ---
+
+      ## 1. Amazon Associates Overview
+      - Product category: [exact Amazon category name]
+      - Commission tier: [%] -- [cite Amazon Associates rate card if found]
+      - Average product price range: $[X] to $[Y]
+      - Top 5 products to review (by bestseller rank or review count):
+        1. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why this is a strong review target]
+        2. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why]
+        3. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why]
+        4. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why]
+        5. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why]
+
+      ## 2. Competitive Landscape
+      [Top 3-5 existing review sites in this niche.
+       For each: name, URL, estimated content volume, what they do well, what they miss.
+       Cite each site URL directly.]
+
+      White space: [What the existing sites are NOT covering well.
+       This is where Crimson Leaf enters.]
+
+      ## 3. Content Opportunity Map
+      Top 10 article templates for this niche (these are the articles to write first):
+      1. "Best [product type] in [year] -- [N] Options Reviewed" -- [buying intent signal]
+      2. "[Product A] vs [Product B] -- Which Is Worth It?" -- [head-to-head comparison]
+      3. "Best [product type] Under $[price]" -- [budget segment]
+      4. "Best [product type] for [specific use case]" -- [niche down]
+      5. "[Product type] Buyer's Guide [year] -- What to Look For" -- [informational + conversion]
+      6-10. [Additional article templates based on keyword gaps found in Pass 3]
+
+      ## 4. Monthly Revenue Model
+      Assumptions (state all -- these are estimates unless a source is cited):
+      - Articles published per month: [N]
+      - Months to meaningful traffic (SEO ramp): [N months]
+      - Average monthly traffic per article at steady state: [X visits]
+        Source: [cite if found, otherwise "(industry average estimate)"]
+      - Affiliate conversion rate: [Y%]
+        Source: [cite if found, otherwise "(Amazon Associates average: 1-3%)"]
+      - Average order value: $[Z]
+      - Commission rate: [P%]
+
+      Revenue per article per month: X visits x Y% conversion x $Z AOV x P% commission = $[result]
+      Monthly revenue at [N] articles: $[result per article] x N articles = $[total]
+
+      Timeline:
+      - Month 1-3: $0 (building content, no traffic yet)
+      - Month 4-6: $[estimate] (first traffic, first conversions)
+      - Month 7-12: $[estimate] (ramp toward steady state)
+      - Month 13+: $[steady state] target (if [N] articles published)
+
+      Break-even: [N articles needed at $[revenue per article] to cover $[monthly cost]]
+
+      ## 5. Crimson Leaf Fit Assessment
+      - What CL agents can do today: [write reviews, research products, publish to Gitea]
+      - What needs to be built: [domain setup, WordPress or static site, affiliate tracking links]
+      - David's required involvement: [minimal -- approve domain purchase, set up affiliate account]
+      - Speed advantage: [CL can publish N articles per week vs a solo human writer's 1-2]
+
+      ## 6. Recommendation
+      **START NOW** / **RESEARCH FURTHER** / **PASS**
+
+      Rationale: [2-3 sentences grounded in the data above.
+       If START NOW: what makes this niche worth entering in the next 30 days?
+       If RESEARCH FURTHER: what specific question must be answered?
+       If PASS: what structural barrier makes the economics unviable?]
+
+      ---
+
+      ## Sources
+      [All URLs cited above, numbered.
+       Format: N. [Title](URL) -- domain.com]
+
+      BUSINESS_PLAN_FLAG: [write "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: true" if recommendation is START NOW,
+      otherwise "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: false"]
+
+  - type: document
+    source_step: affiliate_brief_body
+    dest_path: "deliverables/affiliate-intelligence/affiliate-brief-{task.id}.md"
+    commit_msg: "research: affiliate brief task={task.id}"
+
+  - type: close
+    rag_update: true
+
+  - type: tool
+    action: enqueue_strategy
+    optional: true
+    condition: "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: true"
+    params:
+      company_slug: "crimson_leaf"
+      project_slug: "incubation"
+      task_type: "business_plan"
+      content: "Develop a full business plan for the affiliate/review site opportunity from affiliate intelligence brief {task.id}. The full brief is in the deliverables folder. Build on it -- do not repeat the affiliate research."
+      agent_name: "orion"
+
+  - type: reply
+    target: channel
+    channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
+    hint: |
+      Write a 2-3 line summary of the affiliate intelligence brief just completed.
+      Include: niche, recommendation (START NOW/RESEARCH FURTHER/PASS),
+      the monthly revenue target at steady state,
+      and the top article template to write first.
+      Example: "Affiliate brief complete: [niche] -- START NOW.
+      Steady-state target: $[X]/month at [N] articles.
+      First article: [title template]."
+
+adjudication:
+  enabled: true
+  pass_threshold: 70
+  deliverable_type: analysis
+  criteria:
+    revenue_model:
+      weight: 40
+      description: "Monthly revenue model is present with stated assumptions. Break-even calculation shown. Numbers are labeled as estimates or cited."
+    content_specificity:
+      weight: 35
+      description: "Top 10 article templates are specific and actionable -- not generic placeholders. Products are named."
+    competitive_analysis:
+      weight: 25
+      description: "At least 3 existing review sites identified with actual URLs and gap analysis."