sprint85: research pipeline -- market_intelligence 5-pass, business_plan, affiliate_intelligence, opportunity_scan news mode, orion identity update
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David Baity
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templates/business_plan.yml
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264
templates/business_plan.yml
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name: business_plan
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description: "Orion develops a full investor-grade business plan for a PROCEED opportunity. Spawned by market_intelligence when recommendation is PROCEED."
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debug: true
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model: power
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system: agent_prompt
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agent_prompt:
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- "= identity.md"
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sections:
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- agent
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- project
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- rag
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- message
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- instructions
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steps:
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- type: think
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max_tokens: 200
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output_key: biz_search_1
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hint: |
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You are developing a business plan for the opportunity described in the task message.
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The market analysis has already been completed -- your task is to find real-world
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business model examples to make the plan concrete and credible.
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Formulate ONE search query to find:
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- Businesses that successfully built this type of company from zero
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- What they did in year 1, their first revenue milestones, how they acquired customers
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- Real founder stories or post-mortems with financial details
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Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
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- type: tool
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capability: Tool_WebSearcher
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input_from: biz_search_1
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mode: research
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max_results: 6
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fetch_pages: 3
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optional: true
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output_key: biz_data_1
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- type: think
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max_tokens: 200
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output_key: biz_search_2
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hint: |
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Pass 2 -- Go-to-market channels for this business type.
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Formulate ONE query to find:
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- What marketing channels work in this niche (SEO, paid, affiliate, social, email)
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- Realistic customer acquisition costs (CAC) and conversion rates
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- How long it takes to see results from each channel
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Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
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- type: tool
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capability: Tool_WebSearcher
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input_from: biz_search_2
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mode: research
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max_results: 6
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fetch_pages: 2
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optional: true
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output_key: biz_data_2
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- type: think
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max_tokens: 200
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output_key: biz_search_3
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hint: |
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Pass 3 -- Risk intelligence.
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Formulate ONE query to find failures and warnings in this niche:
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- "failed [niche type]" or "[niche] startup mistakes" or "why [business model] fails"
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- What founders warn other founders about
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- Common pitfalls that kill businesses in this space before month 6
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Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
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- type: tool
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capability: Tool_WebSearcher
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input_from: biz_search_3
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mode: research
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max_results: 6
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fetch_pages: 2
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optional: true
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output_key: biz_data_3
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- type: think
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max_tokens: 15000
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output_key: business_plan_body
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hint: |
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You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
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Produce a full, investor-grade business plan for the opportunity in the task message.
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=== MARKET ANALYSIS (foundation -- already completed) ===
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[The market analysis for this opportunity has already been committed to Gitea.
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Use the opportunity details from the task message as your foundation.
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Do not repeat basic market research -- expand on it with the data below.]
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=== END MARKET ANALYSIS ===
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=== BUSINESS MODEL EXAMPLES ===
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{biz_data_1}
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=== END BUSINESS MODEL EXAMPLES ===
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=== GO-TO-MARKET CHANNEL RESEARCH ===
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{biz_data_2}
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=== END GTM RESEARCH ===
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=== RISK AND FAILURE RESEARCH ===
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{biz_data_3}
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=== END RISK RESEARCH ===
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CITATION RULES:
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- Every financial figure must have a stated assumption.
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- Every benchmark (CAC, conversion rate, time-to-rank) must cite a source [Title](URL)
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if one was found in the research above.
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- If no source is available, label clearly: "(industry estimate -- unverified)"
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- Target at least 10 cited URLs across the full document.
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- Do NOT invent URLs.
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WRITE THE BUSINESS PLAN IN THE FOLLOWING FORMAT.
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This is a deliverable David will read to decide whether to fund this venture.
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It must be complete, specific, and honest about uncertainty.
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# Business Plan: [Opportunity Name]
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Version 1.0 -- Prepared by Orion, Crimson Leaf Holdings Research Division
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---
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## Executive Summary
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[250 words max. Answer these 4 questions in order:
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1. What is this business and who does it serve?
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2. Why does this opportunity exist now?
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3. What does Crimson Leaf need to invest (time, cost, initial effort)?
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4. When is break-even and what does steady-state look like?]
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## Problem and Solution
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[What specific gap exists in the market?
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What does the target customer fail to get from current options?
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How does this business solve that gap in a defensible way?
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Cite community pain points from the market analysis if available.]
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## Market Analysis Summary
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[2-3 paragraph summary of the market opportunity.
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TAM, growth rate, key drivers -- all cited.
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This is a summary, not a repeat -- keep it under 300 words.]
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## Business Model
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[Exactly how does this business make money?
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Revenue streams: primary, secondary.
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Pricing model: subscription / one-time / affiliate commission / advertising.
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Unit economics: revenue per customer, cost to serve, gross margin estimate.
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Cite real pricing benchmarks from research above.]
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## Revenue Projections
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State all assumptions explicitly before each number.
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### Month 1-3 (Ramp)
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- Assumption: [what is being built, no revenue yet or minimal]
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- Projected revenue: $[X] -- based on [assumption]
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- Cost: $[Y] -- [what this covers]
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### Month 4-6 (Initial Traction)
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- Assumption: [N articles/products/units published, traffic starting]
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- Projected revenue: $[X] -- based on [rate] x [volume] x [conversion]
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- Cost: $[Y]
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### Month 7-12 (Scaling)
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- Assumption: [steady-state content/product velocity]
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- Projected revenue: $[X] -- based on [rate] x [volume] x [conversion]
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- Cost: $[Y]
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### Break-Even Analysis
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- Monthly fixed cost: $[X]
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- Revenue per unit (article/product/subscriber): $[Y]
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- Break-even units: [X / Y = N units]
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- Break-even timeline: Month [N] at [assumed growth rate]
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## Competitive Analysis
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[Who wins in this space today, who loses, and why Crimson Leaf wins on AI-speed and cost.
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Reference the competitive landscape from the market analysis.
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Cite competitor URLs where available.]
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## Go-to-Market Plan (First 90 Days)
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[Based on the GTM channel research above, what is the actual plan?]
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### Week 1-4: Setup
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- [ ] [Specific task -- domain, affiliate account, Gitea repo, agent config]
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- [ ] [Specific task]
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- [ ] [Specific task]
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### Month 2: First Content / Product Wave
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- [ ] [Specific deliverable -- N articles, N products, first campaign]
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- [ ] [Specific task]
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### Month 3: Measure and Iterate
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- [ ] [What metrics are checked]
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- [ ] [What triggers a scale decision vs a cut decision]
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- [ ] Scale threshold: [specific number -- e.g., "If monthly revenue exceeds $200 by day 90, scale"]
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- [ ] Cut threshold: [specific number -- e.g., "If traffic is under 100 visits/month by day 90, reassess"]
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## Operations Plan
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[Who does what? Be specific about CL agent roles vs David's responsibilities.]
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- Orion: [ongoing research role]
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- Content agents (CLP equivalent): [what they produce]
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- David: [minimal human-in-the-loop requirements -- e.g., approve new affiliate categories, fund hosting]
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- Automation level: [what can run fully automated vs what needs approval]
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## Risk Register
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[Top 5 risks based on failure research above. Format: Risk | Severity | Mitigation]
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| Risk | Severity (H/M/L) | Mitigation |
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|------|-----------------|------------|
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[Fill 5 rows -- cite failure sources where available]
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## 90-Day Decision Gate
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At day 90, this venture is evaluated against these criteria:
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- Minimum viable: [specific metric -- traffic, revenue, content volume]
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- If minimum viable is NOT met: [specific action -- pause, pivot, or close]
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- If minimum viable IS met: [specific next investment or scale decision]
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## Final Recommendation
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**FUND** / **PILOT FIRST** / **DO NOT FUND**
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Rationale: [2-3 sentences. Ground the recommendation in the data above.
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If FUND: what makes the risk acceptable?
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If PILOT FIRST: what small experiment resolves the uncertainty?
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If DO NOT FUND: what fundamental barrier makes this a poor investment?]
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---
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## Sources
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[All URLs cited above, numbered, with domain.
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Format: N. [Title](URL) -- domain.com
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Minimum 10 sources for a FUND recommendation.]
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- type: document
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source_step: business_plan_body
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dest_path: "deliverables/business-plans/business-plan-{task.id}.md"
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commit_msg: "research: business plan task={task.id}"
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- type: close
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rag_update: true
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- type: reply
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target: channel
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channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
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hint: |
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Write a 3-4 line summary of the business plan just completed.
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Include: opportunity name, final recommendation (FUND/PILOT FIRST/DO NOT FUND),
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the projected 12-month revenue range (conservative to optimistic),
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and one key risk or insight from the risk register.
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Example: "Business plan complete: [name] -- FUND. 12-month projection $X-$Y.
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Key risk: [risk] -- mitigated by [approach]."
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adjudication:
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enabled: true
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pass_threshold: 75
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deliverable_type: plan
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criteria:
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financial_realism:
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weight: 40
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description: "Revenue projections state explicit assumptions -- no round numbers without basis. Break-even math is shown."
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citation_density:
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weight: 35
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description: "At least 10 real URLs cited inline. Every benchmark cites a source or is labeled as an estimate."
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actionability:
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weight: 25
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description: "90-day plan has specific tasks and decision thresholds, not vague goals. FUND/PILOT/PASS is grounded in data."
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