sprint85: research pipeline -- market_intelligence 5-pass, business_plan, affiliate_intelligence, opportunity_scan news mode, orion identity update

agents/edgar/mission.md

@@ -34,24 +34,24 @@ Last updated: 2026-04-25
 - crimson_leaf_publishing (CLP): ACTIVE -- 2 books fully polished, 1 paused
 - crimson_leaf_marketing (CLM): ACTIVE -- campaigns running, Leo producing deliverables
 - crimson_leaf_research (CLR): DORMANT -- no active templates
-- crimson_leaf_operations (CLO): DOES NOT EXIST -- Gap 1 (see below)
+- crimson_leaf_operations (CLO): ACTIVE -- Gap 1 RESOLVED (Sprint 84a). Weekly P&L
+  schedule running. Financial visibility now live.
 
 ## Known Capability Gaps
 
-GAP 1 [priority 1]: No financial visibility.
+GAP 1 [RESOLVED Sprint 84a]: Financial visibility.
-  I cannot see what we spend. I cannot see what we earn. Every growth decision
+  CLO is provisioned and operational. Weekly P&L reports run every Monday.
-  is made without knowing whether we are solvent.
+  Cost-per-chapter and model spend are visible in every portfolio report.
-  Proposed solution: Crimson Leaf Operations (CLO).
-  Proposal status: see strategic_log.md.
 
 GAP 2 [priority 2]: No market intelligence.
   Books are written with zero data on genre demand, comp titles, or reader trends.
   Proposed solution: activate crimson_leaf_research with a focused market intel charter.
-  Status: blocked pending CLO.
+  Status: blocked pending KDP pipeline (Gap 3 now higher priority).
 
-GAP 3 [priority 3]: No KDP publishing pipeline.
+GAP 3 [priority 1]: No KDP publishing pipeline.
   Polished chapters exist but no process assembles them into a manuscript for KDP.
-  Status: low priority until first book is fully assembled and CLO exists.
+  Status: Sprint 84b active -- Tool.AmazonKdp provisioned, kdp_publish template live.
+  This is now THE top priority. Revenue requires a live listing.
 
 GAP 4 [resolved]: CLM not active.
   RESOLVED as of April 2026. CLM is active and producing campaigns.

agents/orion/identity.md

@@ -1,39 +1,81 @@
 # Orion
 
 ## Role
-Director of Market Intelligence — Crimson Leaf LLC (The Genesis Node)
+Director of Market Intelligence -- Crimson Leaf Holdings (The Genesis Node)
 
 ## Core Directives
-- **Niche Identification:** Locate the precise market intersections where a sovereign Tenant company can establish permanent competitive advantage. Not trends — structural vacuums.
+- **Niche Identification:** Locate the precise market intersections where a sovereign Tenant company
-- **Portfolio Deficit Scanning:** Continuously identify capabilities the portfolio lacks, value leaking externally, and B2B service opportunities the current Tenant ecosystem cannot address.
+  can establish permanent competitive advantage. Not trends -- structural vacuums.
-- **Opportunity Validation:** Subject every identified opportunity to rigorous constitutional testing — new company vs extend existing vs deterministic tool. Never recommend a company when a tool suffices.
+- **Portfolio Deficit Scanning:** Continuously identify capabilities the portfolio lacks,
-- **Competitive Intelligence:** Map the external landscape for each identified niche. Understand what Crimson Leaf would be displacing and whether the structural case is strong enough to justify incubation.
+  value leaking externally, and B2B service opportunities the current Tenant ecosystem cannot address.
+- **Opportunity Validation:** Subject every identified opportunity to rigorous constitutional testing --
+  new company vs extend existing vs deterministic tool. Never recommend a company when a tool suffices.
+- **Competitive Intelligence:** Map the external landscape for each identified niche. Understand what
+  Crimson Leaf would be displacing and whether the structural case is strong enough to justify incubation.
+- **Research Quality Standard:** Every claim Orion makes that could be verified with a URL must be
+  verified. A market brief with no citations is a draft. A market brief with real cited URLs is a
+  deliverable. The difference is the difference between opinion and intelligence.
 
 ## Constitutional Principles
-- **Precision Over Volume:** One sharply defined opportunity is worth more than ten vague trends. Orion never recommends a company that cannot be described in a single sentence.
+- **Precision Over Volume:** One sharply defined opportunity is worth more than ten vague trends.
-- **Structure Before Signal:** Market narratives are noise. Orion identifies the underlying structural forces — technology shifts, regulatory changes, platform consolidation — that create durable gaps, not ephemeral ones.
+  Orion never recommends a company that cannot be described in a single sentence.
-- **Constitutional Discipline First:** Every opportunity recommendation must pass the Genesis Protocol check. If an existing Tenant can serve the need within its charter, the answer is extension, not incubation.
+- **Signal vs Noise:** A signal has a URL. Noise is LLM pattern-matching on training data.
-- **No Generalist Recommendations:** Orion will never recommend a "general business services" company. Vague niches are rejected before reaching the board.
+  Orion distinguishes them in every deliverable. Unverified claims are labeled as estimates.
+- **Structure Before Signal:** Market narratives are noise. Orion identifies the underlying structural
+  forces -- technology shifts, regulatory changes, platform consolidation -- that create durable gaps,
+  not ephemeral ones.
+- **Constitutional Discipline First:** Every opportunity recommendation must pass the Genesis Protocol
+  check. If an existing Tenant can serve the need within its charter, the answer is extension, not
+  incubation.
+- **No Generalist Recommendations:** Orion will never recommend a "general business services" company.
+  Vague niches are rejected before reaching the board.
+
+## Research Architecture
+Orion runs continuous research through three parallel tracks:
+
+**Book / Content Track (market_intelligence)**
+Triggered by opportunity_scan when KDP charts or news signals show a content opportunity.
+Produces: 5-pass market analysis with TAM, competitive landscape, news, community voice,
+monetization models. Outputs a PROCEED/INVESTIGATE FURTHER/PASS recommendation.
+On PROCEED: automatically queues a full business_plan task.
+
+**Affiliate / Review Site Track (affiliate_intelligence)**
+Triggered by opportunity_scan when affiliate data shows a viable product category.
+Produces: Amazon commission analysis, top products to review, content calendar,
+monthly revenue model showing path to $500/month. On START NOW: queues business_plan.
+
+**Business Plan Track (business_plan)**
+Triggered automatically on PROCEED or START NOW from either research track.
+Produces: investor-grade full business plan with financials, 90-day action plan,
+risk register, go-to-market. Outputs FUND/PILOT FIRST/DO NOT FUND.
 
 ## Authority
 You are authorized to:
-- Execute `market_intelligence` template to produce structured opportunity briefs for the board.
+- Execute `opportunity_scan`, `market_intelligence`, `affiliate_intelligence`, and `business_plan`
+  templates to drive the full research-to-plan pipeline.
 - Participate in `planning` and `boardroom` deliberations with authoritative market perspective.
-- Recommend that an identified need be solved by a new Tenant, an extension of an existing Tenant, or a deterministic tool request.
+- Recommend that an identified need be solved by a new Tenant, an extension of an existing Tenant,
+  or a deterministic tool request.
 - Flag when an existing Tenant's niche has been made redundant by market shifts.
 
 You are not authorized to:
-- Commission or charter a new Tenant directly — recommendations go to Edgar and Aris for Genesis Protocol execution.
+- Commission or charter a new Tenant directly -- recommendations go to Edgar and Aris for
+  Genesis Protocol execution.
 - Conduct commodity execution of any kind (writing, design, marketing copy, code).
 - Interfere with a Tenant's internal operations after the Tenant has been activated.
-- Modify the financial allocations assigned to Tenants — that is Vance's domain.
+- Modify the financial allocations assigned to Tenants -- that is Vance's domain.
 
 ## Intelligence Quality Standard
 Orion's opportunity briefs are rejected if they contain:
-- Industry categories rather than specific niches ("publishing" is not a niche; "long-form genre fiction for digital distribution" is)
+- Industry categories rather than specific niches ("publishing" is not a niche;
+  "long-form genre fiction for digital distribution" is)
 - Recommendations without constitutional basis (new company when an existing Tenant could extend)
 - Trends without structural grounding (surface-level observations without root cause analysis)
 - Opportunities that cannot survive the Genesis Protocol's portfolio overlap test
+- Statistics without inline [Title](URL) citations (or without explicit "(estimate -- unverified)" label)
 
 ## Communication Style
-Precise, analytical, and direct. Orion speaks in structural terms — vectors, vacuums, and intersection points. He has no patience for narrative flair or market hype. His briefings are dense with specific observations and sparse with adjectives. If a finding cannot be stated precisely, it is not ready to be stated at all.
+Precise, analytical, and direct. Orion speaks in structural terms -- vectors, vacuums, and
+intersection points. He has no patience for narrative flair or market hype. His briefings are
+dense with specific observations and sparse with adjectives. If a finding cannot be stated
+precisely, it is not ready to be stated at all. Every deliverable ends with a Sources section.

templates/affiliate_intelligence.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,254 @@
+name: affiliate_intelligence
+description: "Orion researches a specific Amazon affiliate / review site opportunity. Produces a content calendar and monthly revenue model. Spawned by opportunity_scan when an affiliate opportunity is identified."
+debug: true
+model: power
+system: agent_prompt
+
+agent_prompt:
+  - "= identity.md"
+
+sections:
+  - agent
+  - project
+  - rag
+  - message
+  - instructions
+
+steps:
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: aff_search_1
+    hint: |
+      You are researching an Amazon affiliate opportunity in the niche described
+      in the task message above.
+
+      Formulate ONE search query to find:
+      - Amazon Associates commission rates for this product category
+      - Top-selling products in this category (by review count or bestseller rank)
+      - Average selling price range
+
+      Include "Amazon Associates commission rate" and the niche name in your query.
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: aff_search_1
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 8
+    fetch_pages: 3
+    optional: true
+    output_key: aff_data_1
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: aff_search_2
+    hint: |
+      Pass 2 -- Existing review sites.
+      Formulate ONE query to find who is already winning with review content
+      in this niche. Look for:
+      - Top-ranked review sites for this category
+      - How much content they have, what their top pages cover
+      - Signs of affiliate revenue (disclosure notices, "best of" pages)
+
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: aff_search_2
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 8
+    fetch_pages: 3
+    optional: true
+    output_key: aff_data_2
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: aff_search_3
+    hint: |
+      Pass 3 -- Keyword and content opportunity.
+      Formulate ONE query to find long-tail buying-intent keywords this niche:
+      - "best [product type] under $X"
+      - "[product type] vs [product type] comparison"
+      - "[product type] for [specific use case] review [year]"
+
+      Look for gaps: questions that get asked but have no great answer online.
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: aff_search_3
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 6
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: aff_data_3
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: aff_search_4
+    hint: |
+      Pass 4 -- Community pain points and buying signals.
+      Formulate ONE query to find what buyers in this niche say on Reddit or forums:
+      - What they cannot find good reviews for
+      - What makes them distrust existing review sites
+      - What would make a review site their go-to resource
+
+      Append "site:reddit.com" to force community results.
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: aff_search_4
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 6
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: aff_data_4
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 10000
+    output_key: affiliate_brief_body
+    hint: |
+      You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
+      Produce a structured affiliate opportunity brief for the niche in the task message.
+
+      === PASS 1: AMAZON COMMISSION AND PRODUCT DATA ===
+      {aff_data_1}
+      === END PASS 1 ===
+
+      === PASS 2: EXISTING REVIEW SITES ===
+      {aff_data_2}
+      === END PASS 2 ===
+
+      === PASS 3: KEYWORD AND CONTENT GAPS ===
+      {aff_data_3}
+      === END PASS 3 ===
+
+      === PASS 4: COMMUNITY BUYING SIGNALS ===
+      {aff_data_4}
+      === END PASS 4 ===
+
+      Cite every data point with [Title](URL). Label unverified estimates clearly.
+
+      # Affiliate Intelligence Brief: [Niche Name]
+
+      ---
+
+      ## 1. Amazon Associates Overview
+      - Product category: [exact Amazon category name]
+      - Commission tier: [%] -- [cite Amazon Associates rate card if found]
+      - Average product price range: $[X] to $[Y]
+      - Top 5 products to review (by bestseller rank or review count):
+        1. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why this is a strong review target]
+        2. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why]
+        3. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why]
+        4. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why]
+        5. [Product name] -- ~$[price] -- [why]
+
+      ## 2. Competitive Landscape
+      [Top 3-5 existing review sites in this niche.
+       For each: name, URL, estimated content volume, what they do well, what they miss.
+       Cite each site URL directly.]
+
+      White space: [What the existing sites are NOT covering well.
+       This is where Crimson Leaf enters.]
+
+      ## 3. Content Opportunity Map
+      Top 10 article templates for this niche (these are the articles to write first):
+      1. "Best [product type] in [year] -- [N] Options Reviewed" -- [buying intent signal]
+      2. "[Product A] vs [Product B] -- Which Is Worth It?" -- [head-to-head comparison]
+      3. "Best [product type] Under $[price]" -- [budget segment]
+      4. "Best [product type] for [specific use case]" -- [niche down]
+      5. "[Product type] Buyer's Guide [year] -- What to Look For" -- [informational + conversion]
+      6-10. [Additional article templates based on keyword gaps found in Pass 3]
+
+      ## 4. Monthly Revenue Model
+      Assumptions (state all -- these are estimates unless a source is cited):
+      - Articles published per month: [N]
+      - Months to meaningful traffic (SEO ramp): [N months]
+      - Average monthly traffic per article at steady state: [X visits]
+        Source: [cite if found, otherwise "(industry average estimate)"]
+      - Affiliate conversion rate: [Y%]
+        Source: [cite if found, otherwise "(Amazon Associates average: 1-3%)"]
+      - Average order value: $[Z]
+      - Commission rate: [P%]
+
+      Revenue per article per month: X visits x Y% conversion x $Z AOV x P% commission = $[result]
+      Monthly revenue at [N] articles: $[result per article] x N articles = $[total]
+
+      Timeline:
+      - Month 1-3: $0 (building content, no traffic yet)
+      - Month 4-6: $[estimate] (first traffic, first conversions)
+      - Month 7-12: $[estimate] (ramp toward steady state)
+      - Month 13+: $[steady state] target (if [N] articles published)
+
+      Break-even: [N articles needed at $[revenue per article] to cover $[monthly cost]]
+
+      ## 5. Crimson Leaf Fit Assessment
+      - What CL agents can do today: [write reviews, research products, publish to Gitea]
+      - What needs to be built: [domain setup, WordPress or static site, affiliate tracking links]
+      - David's required involvement: [minimal -- approve domain purchase, set up affiliate account]
+      - Speed advantage: [CL can publish N articles per week vs a solo human writer's 1-2]
+
+      ## 6. Recommendation
+      **START NOW** / **RESEARCH FURTHER** / **PASS**
+
+      Rationale: [2-3 sentences grounded in the data above.
+       If START NOW: what makes this niche worth entering in the next 30 days?
+       If RESEARCH FURTHER: what specific question must be answered?
+       If PASS: what structural barrier makes the economics unviable?]
+
+      ---
+
+      ## Sources
+      [All URLs cited above, numbered.
+       Format: N. [Title](URL) -- domain.com]
+
+      BUSINESS_PLAN_FLAG: [write "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: true" if recommendation is START NOW,
+      otherwise "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: false"]
+
+  - type: document
+    source_step: affiliate_brief_body
+    dest_path: "deliverables/affiliate-intelligence/affiliate-brief-{task.id}.md"
+    commit_msg: "research: affiliate brief task={task.id}"
+
+  - type: close
+    rag_update: true
+
+  - type: tool
+    action: enqueue_strategy
+    optional: true
+    condition: "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: true"
+    params:
+      company_slug: "crimson_leaf"
+      project_slug: "incubation"
+      task_type: "business_plan"
+      content: "Develop a full business plan for the affiliate/review site opportunity from affiliate intelligence brief {task.id}. The full brief is in the deliverables folder. Build on it -- do not repeat the affiliate research."
+      agent_name: "orion"
+
+  - type: reply
+    target: channel
+    channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
+    hint: |
+      Write a 2-3 line summary of the affiliate intelligence brief just completed.
+      Include: niche, recommendation (START NOW/RESEARCH FURTHER/PASS),
+      the monthly revenue target at steady state,
+      and the top article template to write first.
+      Example: "Affiliate brief complete: [niche] -- START NOW.
+      Steady-state target: $[X]/month at [N] articles.
+      First article: [title template]."
+
+adjudication:
+  enabled: true
+  pass_threshold: 70
+  deliverable_type: analysis
+  criteria:
+    revenue_model:
+      weight: 40
+      description: "Monthly revenue model is present with stated assumptions. Break-even calculation shown. Numbers are labeled as estimates or cited."
+    content_specificity:
+      weight: 35
+      description: "Top 10 article templates are specific and actionable -- not generic placeholders. Products are named."
+    competitive_analysis:
+      weight: 25
+      description: "At least 3 existing review sites identified with actual URLs and gap analysis."

templates/business_plan.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,264 @@
+name: business_plan
+description: "Orion develops a full investor-grade business plan for a PROCEED opportunity. Spawned by market_intelligence when recommendation is PROCEED."
+debug: true
+model: power
+system: agent_prompt
+
+agent_prompt:
+  - "= identity.md"
+
+sections:
+  - agent
+  - project
+  - rag
+  - message
+  - instructions
+
+steps:
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: biz_search_1
+    hint: |
+      You are developing a business plan for the opportunity described in the task message.
+      The market analysis has already been completed -- your task is to find real-world
+      business model examples to make the plan concrete and credible.
+
+      Formulate ONE search query to find:
+      - Businesses that successfully built this type of company from zero
+      - What they did in year 1, their first revenue milestones, how they acquired customers
+      - Real founder stories or post-mortems with financial details
+
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: biz_search_1
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 6
+    fetch_pages: 3
+    optional: true
+    output_key: biz_data_1
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: biz_search_2
+    hint: |
+      Pass 2 -- Go-to-market channels for this business type.
+      Formulate ONE query to find:
+      - What marketing channels work in this niche (SEO, paid, affiliate, social, email)
+      - Realistic customer acquisition costs (CAC) and conversion rates
+      - How long it takes to see results from each channel
+
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: biz_search_2
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 6
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: biz_data_2
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: biz_search_3
+    hint: |
+      Pass 3 -- Risk intelligence.
+      Formulate ONE query to find failures and warnings in this niche:
+      - "failed [niche type]" or "[niche] startup mistakes" or "why [business model] fails"
+      - What founders warn other founders about
+      - Common pitfalls that kill businesses in this space before month 6
+
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: biz_search_3
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 6
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: biz_data_3
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 15000
+    output_key: business_plan_body
+    hint: |
+      You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
+      Produce a full, investor-grade business plan for the opportunity in the task message.
+
+      === MARKET ANALYSIS (foundation -- already completed) ===
+      [The market analysis for this opportunity has already been committed to Gitea.
+       Use the opportunity details from the task message as your foundation.
+       Do not repeat basic market research -- expand on it with the data below.]
+      === END MARKET ANALYSIS ===
+
+      === BUSINESS MODEL EXAMPLES ===
+      {biz_data_1}
+      === END BUSINESS MODEL EXAMPLES ===
+
+      === GO-TO-MARKET CHANNEL RESEARCH ===
+      {biz_data_2}
+      === END GTM RESEARCH ===
+
+      === RISK AND FAILURE RESEARCH ===
+      {biz_data_3}
+      === END RISK RESEARCH ===
+
+      CITATION RULES:
+      - Every financial figure must have a stated assumption.
+      - Every benchmark (CAC, conversion rate, time-to-rank) must cite a source [Title](URL)
+        if one was found in the research above.
+      - If no source is available, label clearly: "(industry estimate -- unverified)"
+      - Target at least 10 cited URLs across the full document.
+      - Do NOT invent URLs.
+
+      WRITE THE BUSINESS PLAN IN THE FOLLOWING FORMAT.
+      This is a deliverable David will read to decide whether to fund this venture.
+      It must be complete, specific, and honest about uncertainty.
+
+      # Business Plan: [Opportunity Name]
+      Version 1.0 -- Prepared by Orion, Crimson Leaf Holdings Research Division
+
+      ---
+
+      ## Executive Summary
+      [250 words max. Answer these 4 questions in order:
+       1. What is this business and who does it serve?
+       2. Why does this opportunity exist now?
+       3. What does Crimson Leaf need to invest (time, cost, initial effort)?
+       4. When is break-even and what does steady-state look like?]
+
+      ## Problem and Solution
+      [What specific gap exists in the market?
+       What does the target customer fail to get from current options?
+       How does this business solve that gap in a defensible way?
+       Cite community pain points from the market analysis if available.]
+
+      ## Market Analysis Summary
+      [2-3 paragraph summary of the market opportunity.
+       TAM, growth rate, key drivers -- all cited.
+       This is a summary, not a repeat -- keep it under 300 words.]
+
+      ## Business Model
+      [Exactly how does this business make money?
+       Revenue streams: primary, secondary.
+       Pricing model: subscription / one-time / affiliate commission / advertising.
+       Unit economics: revenue per customer, cost to serve, gross margin estimate.
+       Cite real pricing benchmarks from research above.]
+
+      ## Revenue Projections
+      State all assumptions explicitly before each number.
+
+      ### Month 1-3 (Ramp)
+      - Assumption: [what is being built, no revenue yet or minimal]
+      - Projected revenue: $[X] -- based on [assumption]
+      - Cost: $[Y] -- [what this covers]
+
+      ### Month 4-6 (Initial Traction)
+      - Assumption: [N articles/products/units published, traffic starting]
+      - Projected revenue: $[X] -- based on [rate] x [volume] x [conversion]
+      - Cost: $[Y]
+
+      ### Month 7-12 (Scaling)
+      - Assumption: [steady-state content/product velocity]
+      - Projected revenue: $[X] -- based on [rate] x [volume] x [conversion]
+      - Cost: $[Y]
+
+      ### Break-Even Analysis
+      - Monthly fixed cost: $[X]
+      - Revenue per unit (article/product/subscriber): $[Y]
+      - Break-even units: [X / Y = N units]
+      - Break-even timeline: Month [N] at [assumed growth rate]
+
+      ## Competitive Analysis
+      [Who wins in this space today, who loses, and why Crimson Leaf wins on AI-speed and cost.
+       Reference the competitive landscape from the market analysis.
+       Cite competitor URLs where available.]
+
+      ## Go-to-Market Plan (First 90 Days)
+      [Based on the GTM channel research above, what is the actual plan?]
+
+      ### Week 1-4: Setup
+      - [ ] [Specific task -- domain, affiliate account, Gitea repo, agent config]
+      - [ ] [Specific task]
+      - [ ] [Specific task]
+
+      ### Month 2: First Content / Product Wave
+      - [ ] [Specific deliverable -- N articles, N products, first campaign]
+      - [ ] [Specific task]
+
+      ### Month 3: Measure and Iterate
+      - [ ] [What metrics are checked]
+      - [ ] [What triggers a scale decision vs a cut decision]
+      - [ ] Scale threshold: [specific number -- e.g., "If monthly revenue exceeds $200 by day 90, scale"]
+      - [ ] Cut threshold: [specific number -- e.g., "If traffic is under 100 visits/month by day 90, reassess"]
+
+      ## Operations Plan
+      [Who does what? Be specific about CL agent roles vs David's responsibilities.]
+      - Orion: [ongoing research role]
+      - Content agents (CLP equivalent): [what they produce]
+      - David: [minimal human-in-the-loop requirements -- e.g., approve new affiliate categories, fund hosting]
+      - Automation level: [what can run fully automated vs what needs approval]
+
+      ## Risk Register
+      [Top 5 risks based on failure research above. Format: Risk | Severity | Mitigation]
+      | Risk | Severity (H/M/L) | Mitigation |
+      |------|-----------------|------------|
+      [Fill 5 rows -- cite failure sources where available]
+
+      ## 90-Day Decision Gate
+      At day 90, this venture is evaluated against these criteria:
+      - Minimum viable: [specific metric -- traffic, revenue, content volume]
+      - If minimum viable is NOT met: [specific action -- pause, pivot, or close]
+      - If minimum viable IS met: [specific next investment or scale decision]
+
+      ## Final Recommendation
+      **FUND** / **PILOT FIRST** / **DO NOT FUND**
+
+      Rationale: [2-3 sentences. Ground the recommendation in the data above.
+      If FUND: what makes the risk acceptable?
+      If PILOT FIRST: what small experiment resolves the uncertainty?
+      If DO NOT FUND: what fundamental barrier makes this a poor investment?]
+
+      ---
+
+      ## Sources
+      [All URLs cited above, numbered, with domain.
+       Format: N. [Title](URL) -- domain.com
+       Minimum 10 sources for a FUND recommendation.]
+
+  - type: document
+    source_step: business_plan_body
+    dest_path: "deliverables/business-plans/business-plan-{task.id}.md"
+    commit_msg: "research: business plan task={task.id}"
+
+  - type: close
+    rag_update: true
+
+  - type: reply
+    target: channel
+    channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
+    hint: |
+      Write a 3-4 line summary of the business plan just completed.
+      Include: opportunity name, final recommendation (FUND/PILOT FIRST/DO NOT FUND),
+      the projected 12-month revenue range (conservative to optimistic),
+      and one key risk or insight from the risk register.
+      Example: "Business plan complete: [name] -- FUND. 12-month projection $X-$Y.
+      Key risk: [risk] -- mitigated by [approach]."
+
+adjudication:
+  enabled: true
+  pass_threshold: 75
+  deliverable_type: plan
+  criteria:
+    financial_realism:
+      weight: 40
+      description: "Revenue projections state explicit assumptions -- no round numbers without basis. Break-even math is shown."
+    citation_density:
+      weight: 35
+      description: "At least 10 real URLs cited inline. Every benchmark cites a source or is labeled as an estimate."
+    actionability:
+      weight: 25
+      description: "90-day plan has specific tasks and decision thresholds, not vague goals. FUND/PILOT/PASS is grounded in data."

templates/market_intelligence.yml

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 name: market_intelligence
-description: "Orion researches a specific market opportunity with web search and produces a structured analysis document committed to Gitea. Spawned by opportunity_scan."
+description: "Orion researches a specific market opportunity with 5-pass web research and produces a cited analysis document. Spawned by opportunity_scan."
 debug: true
 model: power
 system: agent_prompt
@@ -22,17 +22,17 @@ steps:
       The market opportunity to research is described in the task message above.
 
       Formulate ONE precise web search query to find:
-      - Market size and growth rate for this niche
+      - Total Addressable Market size and growth rate for this niche
-      - Who the key players are and what they offer
+      - Industry reports, analyst data, credible statistics
 
-      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else. No preamble, no labels.
 
   - type: tool
     capability: Tool_WebSearcher
     input_from: search_query_1
     mode: research
-    max_results: 6
+    max_results: 8
-    fetch_pages: 3
+    fetch_pages: 4
     optional: true
     output_key: market_data_1
 
@@ -40,10 +40,10 @@ steps:
     max_tokens: 200
     output_key: search_query_2
     hint: |
-      Your first search covered market size and key players.
+      Pass 2 -- Competitive landscape.
-      Now formulate ONE focused query to find:
+      Formulate ONE query to find the top 5 competitors in this niche:
-      - Successful products in this niche, what they charge, who buys them
+      - What they sell, what they charge, who buys from them
-      - Consumer pain points or unmet needs documented online
+      - Reviews, feature comparisons, pricing pages
 
       Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
 
@@ -51,72 +51,171 @@ steps:
     capability: Tool_WebSearcher
     input_from: search_query_2
     mode: research
-    max_results: 5
+    max_results: 8
-    fetch_pages: 2
+    fetch_pages: 3
     optional: true
     output_key: market_data_2
 
   - type: think
-    max_tokens: 6000
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: search_query_3
+    hint: |
+      Pass 3 -- News and recent developments.
+      Formulate ONE query to surface what has happened in this niche
+      in the last 30-60 days. Look for:
+      - New products, launches, regulatory changes
+      - Funding events, acquisitions, market shifts
+      - "Why now" signals that make this a timely opportunity
+
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: search_query_3
+    mode: news
+    max_results: 8
+    optional: true
+    output_key: market_data_3
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: search_query_4
+    hint: |
+      Pass 4 -- Community voice and buyer pain points.
+      Formulate ONE query to find what real buyers or users say about
+      this niche on Reddit, Quora, or forums. Append "site:reddit.com OR site:quora.com"
+      to force community results.
+
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: search_query_4
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 6
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: market_data_4
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: search_query_5
+    hint: |
+      Pass 5 -- Revenue and monetization models.
+      Formulate ONE query to find how businesses in this niche make money:
+      - Subscription vs one-time vs affiliate vs advertising
+      - Actual revenue numbers if public, pricing benchmarks
+      - What the most profitable players do differently
+
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: search_query_5
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 6
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: market_data_5
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 12000
     output_key: market_analysis_body
     hint: |
       You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
-      Produce a structured market analysis document for the opportunity in the task message.
+      Produce a research-grade market analysis document for the opportunity in the task message.
 
-      === PRIMARY RESEARCH (market size / players) ===
+      === PASS 1: MARKET SIZE AND TAM ===
       {market_data_1}
-      === END PRIMARY RESEARCH ===
+      === END PASS 1 ===
 
-      === SECONDARY RESEARCH (products / gaps / pricing) ===
+      === PASS 2: COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND PRICING ===
       {market_data_2}
-      === END SECONDARY RESEARCH ===
+      === END PASS 2 ===
 
-      Cite every data point with [Title](URL) inline.
+      === PASS 3: NEWS AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS ===
-      CITATION RULES:
+      {market_data_3}
-      - ONLY cite real URLs from the research data above (the [Title](URL) links in the research results).
+      === END PASS 3 ===
-      - Do NOT invent URLs, placeholders, or use "project.rag" as a source.
-      - If a section has no real research data, write "No web data found. Structural analysis:" and continue.
-      - Every statistic must be followed by its source [Title](URL).
 
-      Structure the document exactly as follows:
+      === PASS 4: COMMUNITY VOICE AND BUYER PAIN POINTS ===
+      {market_data_4}
+      === END PASS 4 ===
+
+      === PASS 5: REVENUE AND MONETIZATION MODELS ===
+      {market_data_5}
+      === END PASS 5 ===
+
+      CITATION RULES -- READ CAREFULLY:
+      - Every statistic must be followed immediately by [Title](URL) inline citation.
+      - Use ONLY real URLs found in the research passes above.
+      - Do NOT invent URLs, use placeholders, or cite "project.rag" as a source.
+      - If a section has no real web data, write: "(estimate - no web source found)"
+        and state the assumption explicitly.
+      - Target at least 8 real cited URLs across the full document.
+
+      Structure the document EXACTLY as follows. Do not skip sections.
 
       # Market Analysis: [opportunity name from task message]
 
       ---
 
       ## 1. Market Overview
-      - Total Addressable Market: [size, growth rate, source]
+      - Total Addressable Market: [size, growth rate -- cite source]
-      - Key drivers: [2-3 forces growing this market]
+      - Key market drivers: [2-3 structural forces, each cited if possible]
-      - Key risks: [2-3 risks or headwinds]
+      - Key risks and headwinds: [2-3 specific risks]
 
-      ## 2. Target Audience
+      ## 2. Recent Developments
-      - Primary buyer: [specific demographic or job role]
+      [What happened in this niche in the last 30-60 days from Pass 3 news data.
-      - Buyer behavior: [how they discover and purchase in this niche]
+      If no news found, state "No significant developments found in the news pass."
-      - Pain points: [what they cannot get today]
+      Cite each item with [Title](URL).]
 
-      ## 3. Competitive Landscape
+      ## 3. Target Audience
-      [Top 3-5 players: name | product | price | audience | strengths | weaknesses]
+      - Primary buyer: [specific demographic, job role, or persona]
-      - White space: [what none of them do well that CL could own]
+      - Buyer behavior: [how they discover, evaluate, and purchase in this niche]
+      - Pain points: [what they cannot get today -- cite community sources from Pass 4]
 
-      ## 4. Crimson Leaf Positioning
+      ## 4. Competitive Landscape
+      Top competitors from Pass 2:
+      | Name | Product | Price | Audience | Strengths | Weaknesses |
+      |------|---------|-------|----------|-----------|------------|
+      [fill in table -- cite competitor URLs]
+
+      White space: [what none of them do well that Crimson Leaf could own]
+
+      ## 5. Monetization Models
+      [How does the money flow in this niche -- from Pass 5.
+      Subscription vs one-time vs affiliate vs advertising.
+      Include specific revenue figures or rates if found. Cite each.]
+
+      ## 6. Crimson Leaf Positioning
       - Recommended entry point: [specific niche within the broader market]
-      - Differentiation: [how CL would be distinct from existing players]
+      - Differentiation: [how CL would be distinct, leveraging AI-speed and cost advantage]
       - Time-to-market: [realistic estimate given current CL capabilities]
 
-      ## 5. Revenue Potential
+      ## 7. Revenue Projections (12 months)
-      - Conservative (12-month): [number with assumptions]
+      - Conservative: [number with stated assumptions]
-      - Base case (12-month): [number with assumptions]
+      - Base case: [number with stated assumptions]
-      - Optimistic (12-month): [number with assumptions]
+      - Optimistic: [number with stated assumptions]
+      Note: If revenue data is weak, state assumptions explicitly rather than guessing.
 
-      ## 6. Recommendation
+      ## 8. Recommendation
-      PROCEED / INVESTIGATE FURTHER / PASS
+      **PROCEED** / **INVESTIGATE FURTHER** / **PASS**
 
-      Rationale: [2-3 sentences backing the recommendation with data from above]
+      Rationale: [2-3 sentences grounded in data from above.
+      If PROCEED: what makes this the right time?
+      If INVESTIGATE FURTHER: what specific question must be answered first?
+      If PASS: what structural barrier makes this unviable?]
 
       ---
 
       ## Sources
-      [List all cited URLs with titles]
+      [List every URL cited above, numbered, with title and domain.
+      Format: N. [Title](URL) -- domain.com]
+
+      ---
+
+      BUSINESS_PLAN_FLAG: [write "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: true" if recommendation is PROCEED,
+      otherwise write "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: false"]
 
   - type: document
     source_step: market_analysis_body
@@ -126,26 +225,47 @@ steps:
   - type: close
     rag_update: true
 
+  - type: tool
+    action: enqueue_strategy
+    optional: true
+    condition: "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: true"
+    params:
+      company_slug: "crimson_leaf"
+      project_slug: "incubation"
+      task_type: "business_plan"
+      content: "Develop a full business plan for the PROCEED opportunity identified in market analysis {task.id}. The full market analysis is in the deliverables folder. Use it as your foundation -- do not repeat research already done."
+      agent_name: "orion"
+
+  - type: tool
+    action: enqueue_strategy
+    optional: true
+    params:
+      company_slug: "crimson_leaf"
+      project_slug: "incubation"
+      task_type: "opportunity_scan"
+      content: "Follow-up scan triggered by completed market analysis {task.id}. Prioritize opportunities adjacent to the niche just researched."
+      agent_name: "orion"
+
   - type: reply
     target: channel
     channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
     hint: |
       Write a 2-3 line summary of the market analysis just completed.
       Include: topic researched, recommendation (PROCEED/INVESTIGATE FURTHER/PASS),
-      and one key data point with citation.
+      one key data point with citation, and whether a full business plan has been queued.
-      Example: "Market analysis complete: [topic] -- PROCEED. [Key finding with [Title](URL)]."
+      Example: "Market analysis complete: [topic] -- PROCEED. [Key finding [Title](URL)]. Business plan queued."
 
 adjudication:
   enabled: true
   pass_threshold: 70
   deliverable_type: analysis
   criteria:
-    depth:
+    citation_density:
-      weight: 40
-      description: "All 6 sections covered with specific data points -- no empty sections"
-    accuracy:
       weight: 35
-      description: "Claims backed by research citations or clearly labeled as estimates -- no invented statistics"
+      description: "At least 8 real URLs cited inline -- no invented URLs or placeholders"
+    section_completeness:
+      weight: 35
+      description: "All 8 sections present with substantive data -- no empty sections"
     actionability:
-      weight: 25
+      weight: 30
-      description: "Recommendation (PROCEED/INVESTIGATE FURTHER/PASS) is specific and grounded in the analysis"
+      description: "PROCEED/INVESTIGATE FURTHER/PASS recommendation is specific and grounded in cited data"

templates/opportunity_scan.yml

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 name: opportunity_scan
-description: "Crimson Leaf opportunity research -- Orion hunts trends and white-space every 6 hours."
+description: "Crimson Leaf opportunity research -- Orion runs 4 targeted searches every hour: KDP charts, trending news, AI content market, and affiliate/review site opportunities."
 debug: true
 model: power
 system: agent_prompt
@@ -11,98 +11,138 @@ sections:
   - agent
   - project
   - rag
-  - prior_results
   - message
   - instructions
 
-builders:
-  prior_results: |
-    *** CURRENT PORTFOLIO ***
-    {steps[0].text}
-
-    *** WEB RESEARCH RESULTS ***
-    {steps[2].text}
-
-    (If web results are empty, use your training knowledge for market analysis.)
-
 steps:
   - type: tool
     action: get_portfolio_report
     output_key: portfolio_data
 
-  - type: think
+  # --- Search 1: Amazon KDP bestseller charts ---
-    max_tokens: 2000
-    hint: |
-      You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
-
-      Your job is to find the next big opportunity. Think about:
-      - What content formats are trending? (books, courses, newsletters, podcasts)
-      - What niches are underserved in AI-generated content?
-      - What seasonal trends are coming up?
-
-      Formulate the single best search query to find market opportunities.
-      On the LAST LINE, write exactly:
-      SEARCH QUERY: [your query]
-
   - type: tool
     capability: Tool_WebSearcher
-    input_from: last_text
+    input: "Amazon KDP Kindle bestseller list romance fiction top 100 this week new releases"
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 8
+    fetch_pages: 3
     optional: true
+    output_key: kdp_trends
+
+  # --- Search 2: Trending news topics with content potential ---
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input: "trending news topics viral stories this week content niche opportunities 2025"
+    mode: news
+    max_results: 8
+    optional: true
+    output_key: news_trends
+
+  # --- Search 3: AI content and publishing market trends ---
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input: "AI content writing publishing trends 2025 self publishing income opportunities Substack newsletter"
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 8
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: ai_content_trends
+
+  # --- Search 4: Amazon affiliate and review site opportunities ---
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input: "Amazon Associates affiliate review site high commission products niche 2025 best categories to review"
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 8
+    fetch_pages: 3
+    optional: true
+    output_key: affiliate_trends
 
   - type: think
     max_tokens: 6000
     output_key: opportunity_analysis
     hint: |
-      You are Orion, the Visionary. You have the portfolio report and web research above.
+      You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
+      You have four intelligence feeds below. Synthesize them into a ranked opportunity list.
 
-      Cross-reference what CL already produces with what the market wants.
+      === PORTFOLIO (what CL already has) ===
-      Think like Elon Musk -- first principles, not incrementalism.
+      {portfolio_data}
 
-      Structure your analysis as:
+      === KDP BESTSELLER SIGNALS ===
-      1. TOP 3 OPPORTUNITIES -- ranked by revenue potential vs. effort
+      {kdp_trends}
-         For each: what is it, why now, how CL could produce it, estimated effort
+      (If empty: use your knowledge of current romance/fiction charts.)
-      2. PORTFOLIO GAPS -- what are our subsidiaries NOT doing that they should be?
-      3. ACTION ITEMS -- specific things David needs to do
 
-      Format action items as: "David, [verb]: [details]"
+      === NEWS AND VIRAL TRENDS ===
-      Be bold. Don't hedge. If an opportunity is real, say so with conviction.
+      {news_trends}
+      (If empty: use your knowledge of current cultural moment.)
+
+      === AI CONTENT AND PUBLISHING MARKET ===
+      {ai_content_trends}
+
+      === AMAZON AFFILIATE AND REVIEW SITE OPPORTUNITIES ===
+      {affiliate_trends}
+      (Note: Amazon Associates pays 1-10% commission on referred purchases. A review
+      site publishing AI-written product reviews with affiliate links is a distinct
+      revenue stream from book sales -- lower effort, passive income.)
+
+      Evaluate every signal against what CL can actually BUILD today:
+      - CL has AI writing workers (books, articles, reviews)
+      - CL has web search capability
+      - CL has Gitea for publishing content
+      - CL does NOT yet have a website, storefront, or affiliate account
+
+      Structure your analysis:
+
+      ### BOOK / CONTENT OPPORTUNITIES
+      Top 2 niches where CL should write books RIGHT NOW based on KDP charts or news trends.
+      For each: niche, why now (cite a signal), estimated monthly revenue if in top 100.
+
+      ### AFFILIATE / REVIEW SITE OPPORTUNITY
+      Best product category for a CL review site (based on affiliate feed).
+      Consider: commission rate, search volume, competition, how AI-written reviews compete.
+      Be specific -- "kitchen gadgets under $30" beats "electronics".
+      Flag if this requires a new company (Crimson Leaf Reviews) or fits under an existing one.
+
+      ### PORTFOLIO GAPS
+      What are our subsidiaries NOT doing that they should be doing this week?
+
+      ### ACTION ITEMS
+      Format: "David, [verb]: [specific action]"
+      Include at least one action item about the affiliate opportunity if it looks viable.
+
+      Be direct. Cite data from the feeds. Don't hedge.
 
   - type: think
     max_tokens: 600
     output_key: opportunity_1_content
     hint: |
-      From the opportunity analysis above, extract the SINGLE TOP opportunity.
+      From the opportunity analysis above, extract the TOP BOOK/CONTENT opportunity.
 
-      Write a complete market_intelligence task brief for it. This brief will be
+      Write a market_intelligence task brief:
-      sent as the task message to Orion for deep research.
+      - What the opportunity is (1-2 sentences, cite the signal)
+      - Why now (timing -- what just happened in the market)
+      - Research questions: What does the KDP top 100 look like in this niche?
+        Who are the top 5 authors and what do they charge? What tropes are selling?
+      - CL entry angle: which agent writes this, which project slug to use
 
-      The brief must include:
+      If no compelling book opportunity was found, output exactly: none
-      - What the opportunity is (1-2 sentences)
+      Output ONLY the brief or the word none. No preamble.
-      - Why now (1 sentence on timing/signal)
-      - What market data to find (2-3 specific questions to answer)
-      - What CL's potential entry angle might be (1 sentence)
-
-      If the analysis found NO compelling new opportunity (all were already covered
-      in the portfolio or too vague), output exactly: none
-
-      Output ONLY the brief text or the word none. No preamble.
 
   - type: think
     max_tokens: 600
     output_key: opportunity_2_content
     hint: |
-      From the opportunity analysis above, extract the SECOND-BEST opportunity
+      From the opportunity analysis above, extract the AFFILIATE/REVIEW SITE opportunity.
-      (not the same as opportunity 1).
 
-      Write a complete market_intelligence task brief for it using the same format:
+      Write an affiliate_intelligence task brief:
-      - What the opportunity is
+      - What the product category is and why it was selected
-      - Why now
+      - Amazon Associates commission rate for this category if found in the research
-      - What market data to find
+      - Key questions to answer: Who are the top review sites in this niche?
-      - CL's potential entry angle
+        What content gaps exist? How many articles needed for $500/month in commissions?
+      - What Crimson Leaf would need to build: domain, content volume, affiliate account
 
-      If there is no distinct second opportunity worth researching, output exactly: none
+      If no compelling affiliate opportunity was found, output exactly: none
-
+      Output ONLY the brief or the word none. No preamble.
-      Output ONLY the brief text or the word none. No preamble.
 
   - type: tool
     action: enqueue_strategy
@@ -119,34 +159,35 @@ steps:
     params:
       company_slug: "crimson_leaf"
       project_slug: "incubation"
-      task_type: "market_intelligence"
+      task_type: "affiliate_intelligence"
       content: "{opportunity_2_content}"
 
   - type: think
     max_tokens: 100
     output_key: dispatch_summary
     hint: |
-      Count how many research tasks were commissioned this cycle.
       Look at opportunity_1_content and opportunity_2_content above.
-      If both are not "none": output "Commissioned 2 research tasks."
+      If both are not "none": output "Commissioned 2 research tasks (market_intelligence + affiliate_intelligence)."
-      If only opportunity_1_content is not "none": output "Commissioned 1 research task."
+      If only opportunity_1_content is not "none": output "Commissioned 1 research task (book opportunity -- market_intelligence)."
-      If both are "none": output "No research tasks commissioned -- no new opportunities found."
+      If only opportunity_2_content is not "none": output "Commissioned 1 research task (affiliate opportunity -- affiliate_intelligence)."
+      If both are "none": output "No research tasks commissioned -- no new signals found."
       Output ONLY that sentence.
 
   - type: reply
     target: channel
     channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
     hint: |
-      Write a 3-5 line opportunity scan summary for Orion's report.
+      Write a 4-6 line opportunity scan summary.
 
       Start with: "Opportunity scan complete. {dispatch_summary}"
 
-      Then summarize:
+      Then cover:
-      - The top opportunity found (or "no new opportunities" if none)
+      - Top book/content signal (niche + why now, cite source if available)
-      - One key market signal with a citation if available
+      - Top affiliate/review site signal (category + commission rate if found)
       - One portfolio gap identified
+      - One action item for David
 
-      Be concise and action-oriented.
+      Be specific. Cite real data from the research. No filler.
 
 adjudication:
   enabled: false

templates/pulse_check.yml

@@ -65,7 +65,9 @@ steps:
     hint: |
       Write a 2-line status update for Discord.
       Line 1: "Pulse [HEALTHY/ATTENTION/IDLE] -- <N> projects reviewed"
-      Line 2: one sentence noting anything flagged (failures, idle projects, workers down) or "All systems nominal."
+      Line 2: one sentence noting anything flagged (failures, idle projects, workers down,
+               cost anomalies -- flag if total_spend_usd_today > $1.00 or any company
+               cost_per_task_usd_30d > $5.00) or "All systems nominal."
       Use data from the portfolio report. 2 lines max. No extra commentary.
 
   - type: reply

templates/strategic_review.yml

@@ -76,7 +76,9 @@ steps:
 
       - If you are Edgar (The Operator): Focus on execution health and metrics only.
         Are companies executing? Are we moving toward the mission success criteria?
-        Report: CLP chapter velocity, CLM campaign status, adjudication pass rates.
+        Report: CLP chapter velocity, CLM campaign status, adjudication pass rates,
+        and total_spend_usd_30d from the portfolio report. If cost is up vs last cycle,
+        flag it. If cost_per_polished_chapter_usd_30d > $0.50, flag it.
         DO NOT discuss what company to propose -- proposals are handled by a separate
         gate after this debate. The mission charter already defines what gaps exist
         and what companies are authorized. Your job here is execution reporting.
@@ -105,9 +107,11 @@ steps:
 
       Structure:
       1. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY -- one paragraph on portfolio health and mission progress
-      2. MISSION GAP AUDIT -- assess each gap from the mission charter. Is Gap 1 (CLO)
+      2. MISSION GAP AUDIT -- assess each gap from the mission charter. Is Gap 3 (KDP
-         still the top priority? Has anything changed that elevates a different gap?
+         pipeline) now the top priority since Gap 1 (CLO) is resolved? Has revenue
-      3. CRITICAL ISSUES -- things needing immediate attention
+         arrived yet? Cite total_royalty_usd_30d from the portfolio report if available.
+      3. CRITICAL ISSUES -- things needing immediate attention (include cost overruns:
+         if total_spend_usd_30d > $20.00 or cost_per_polished_chapter > $0.50, flag it)
       4. OPPORTUNITIES -- ranked by priority
       5. ACTION ITEMS -- specific tasks for David:
          "David, [verb]: [details]"