CL research: add research mode templates + web research to proposals and market intel

- company_proposal.yml: add 2 research phases (market + revenue) before exec summary;
  all think steps now require [Title](URL) citations; add Sources section to document
- market_intelligence.yml: add web search step (research mode) before analysis think;
  package schema adds sources array; adjudication evidence_quality now checks for citations
- research_brief.yml: new standalone 4-query deep research template; searches market,
  competitors, trends, cases; assembles annotated brief with Source Index section;
  saves to deliverables/research/; adjudication checks citation_quality (40% weight)

templates/company_proposal.yml

@@ -1,5 +1,5 @@
 name: company_proposal
-description: "Produce a complete, board-ready business plan for a proposed new Crimson Leaf subsidiary."
+description: "Produce a complete, board-ready business plan for a proposed new Crimson Leaf subsidiary. Includes web research with cited sources."
 debug: true
 model: power
 sections:
@@ -16,6 +16,330 @@ steps:
     output_key: prior_proposals
     optional: true
 
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 800
+    output_key: research_queries
+    hint: |
+      You are preparing to write a business plan.
+      The brief from the strategic review is in the task message above.
+
+      Generate 3 precise web search queries to gather real market data for this plan.
+      Focus on:
+        1. Market size and growth rate for this type of business
+        2. Competitor landscape and pricing in this niche
+        3. Trends and demand signals supporting this opportunity
+
+      Output ONLY a numbered list of 3 search queries. No explanation. No commentary.
+      Example:
+      1. AI content publishing market size 2025
+      2. automated ebook publishing competitors pricing
+      3. self-publishing AI tools demand trends
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: last_text
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 6
+    fetch_pages: 3
+    optional: true
+    output_key: market_research_1
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 600
+    output_key: research_query_2
+    hint: |
+      Your previous research covered market size and competitors.
+      Now formulate ONE focused search query to find:
+      - Revenue models and monetization strategies in this exact niche
+      - Pricing benchmarks or average deal sizes
+      - Customer pain points or unmet needs documented online
+
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: last_text
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 5
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: market_research_2
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 2000
+    output_key: exec_summary
+    hint: |
+      You are writing a professional business plan for a proposed subsidiary.
+      The brief from the strategic review is in the task message above.
+
+      IMPORTANT: Use the company name, slug, and purpose EXACTLY as stated in
+      the brief. Do NOT rename, rebrand, or creatively reinterpret the company.
+      The brief was written from the mission charter -- it is authoritative.
+
+      === PRIOR PROPOSALS (read this before writing) ===
+      {prior_proposals}
+      === END PRIOR PROPOSALS ===
+
+      The prior proposals above are your institutional memory. Study them.
+      Do NOT repeat a company that was already proposed.
+
+      === MARKET RESEARCH (primary) ===
+      {market_research_1}
+      === END RESEARCH ===
+
+      === MARKET RESEARCH (revenue/monetization) ===
+      {market_research_2}
+      === END RESEARCH ===
+
+      Write the EXECUTIVE SUMMARY section. Cite specific research findings inline
+      using [Title](URL) markdown format wherever you reference external data.
+
+      Include:
+
+      1. PROPOSED COMPANY
+         - Full name and slug (EXACTLY as given in the brief)
+         - One-sentence purpose statement
+         - Which existing gap it closes
+
+      2. PROBLEM STATEMENT
+         What is Crimson Leaf Holdings unable to do today without this company?
+         Be specific. Give examples of decisions we cannot make.
+
+      3. MARKET OPPORTUNITY
+         Use data from the research above. Cite every statistic.
+         What is the addressable market? What is the growth trajectory?
+         What do competitors charge? What are they missing?
+
+      4. PROPOSED SOLUTION
+         How does this company close the gap?
+         What would it do in the first 30 days? First 90 days?
+
+      5. STRATEGIC FIT
+         How does this company advance the primary mission (profitable AI publishing)?
+         How does it interact with existing subsidiaries?
+
+      Write in professional business plan style. No fluff. No filler.
+      Every factual claim should be backed by a citation from the research.
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 1500
+    output_key: cost_model
+    hint: |
+      Write the COST MODEL AND FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS section.
+      Reference any pricing or market data from the research to ground your projections.
+
+      Include:
+
+      1. SETUP COSTS
+         - Gitea repo creation (one-time, zero API cost, ~5 minutes of Copilot time)
+         - Initial template development (estimate tasks * cost per task)
+         - Initial agent configuration
+
+      2. RECURRING OPERATIONAL COSTS
+         - Estimated tasks per week at steady state
+         - Average cost per task (power model: ~$0.05-0.15 per task typical range)
+         - Weekly and monthly API cost projection
+
+      3. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
+         - What is the cost of NOT having this company? (lost revenue, blind decisions, etc.)
+         - What is the break-even point?
+         - Cite any relevant market benchmarks from the research above.
+
+      4. BUDGET CONSTRAINT CHECK
+         - Current Genesis Fund status: UNKNOWN (this is itself evidence for CLO need)
+         - Does this proposal create a self-funding loop? How?
+
+      Use real numbers from research where available. Estimate clearly where not.
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 1200
+    output_key: risk_analysis
+    hint: |
+      Write the RISK ANALYSIS AND ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED section.
+
+      Include:
+
+      1. RISKS OF PROCEEDING
+         - Could this company create scope creep or distraction?
+         - Could it duplicate work already handled by an existing subsidiary?
+         Rate each risk: Low / Medium / High
+
+      2. RISKS OF NOT PROCEEDING
+         - What keeps getting worse if we wait another 30 days?
+         - Are there compounding risks?
+         Rate each risk: Low / Medium / High
+
+      3. COMPETITIVE RISK
+         Reference the competitor research above. Which competitors are already in this space?
+         What is their moat? Can we out-specialize them? Cite with [Title](URL).
+
+      4. ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED
+         For each alternative, explain why it was rejected:
+         A. Solve with a new template in an existing company
+         B. Solve with a one-time manual report
+         C. Expand an existing subsidiary's charter
+         D. Wait -- this is not urgent enough yet
+
+      5. RECOMMENDATION
+         Given the above, do you still recommend proceeding?
+         If yes, state the minimum viable version.
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 2000
+    output_key: company_spec
+    hint: |
+      Write the PROPOSED COMPANY SPECIFICATION section.
+      This is the technical blueprint David and Copilot will use to build the company.
+
+      Include:
+
+      1. COMPANY RECORD
+         - company_id: (leave as TBD -- David assigns)
+         - name: (full display name)
+         - slug: (lowercase, underscores, e.g. crimson_leaf_operations)
+         - parent_company: crimson_leaf
+         - mission: (one sentence)
+         - tagline: (marketing one-liner)
+         - type: (operations / research / production / marketing)
+         - status: active
+
+      2. PROPOSED AGENTS
+         For each agent:
+         - Role title and name
+         - Personality and focus in 2-3 sentences
+         - Primary responsibilities (bullet list)
+         - Model recommendation: power / standard / fast
+         - supported_templates list
+
+      3. PROPOSED TEMPLATES (MVP set)
+         For each template:
+         - Template name and purpose
+         - Key steps (2-5 sentences describing the pipeline)
+         - Trigger: scheduled / on-demand / spawned-by
+         - Estimated cost per run
+
+      4. SCHEDULE
+         - What scheduled tasks should run? At what frequency?
+         - What should run on demand vs on a schedule?
+
+      5. 90-DAY SUCCESS CRITERIA
+         List 3-5 measurable outcomes that would confirm this company is delivering value.
+         Each criterion must be verifiable without subjective judgment.
+
+      6. DEPENDENCIES
+         - What must exist before this company can operate?
+         - Any data feeds, integrations, or other companies required?
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 7000
+    output_key: full_proposal
+    hint: |
+      Assemble the complete business plan from all sections already written.
+      Format as a professional document David will read and approve or reject.
+
+      REQUIRED STRUCTURE:
+
+      # Proposal: [Company Full Name]
+      Submitted by: Edgar Chen, CEO, Crimson Leaf Holdings
+      Task ID: {task.id}
+      Status: AWAITING DAVID'S APPROVAL
+
+      ---
+
+      ## Executive Summary
+      {exec_summary}
+
+      ---
+
+      ## Market Research Sources
+      List all sources cited in this document as a reference section:
+      - [Title](URL) -- brief note on what data was drawn from this source
+
+      ---
+
+      ## Cost Model and Financial Projections
+      {cost_model}
+
+      ---
+
+      ## Risk Analysis and Alternatives Considered
+      {risk_analysis}
+
+      ---
+
+      ## Proposed Company Specification
+      {company_spec}
+
+      ---
+
+      ## Signature Block
+      Edgar Chen certifies this proposal meets the governance requirements of the
+      Crimson Leaf Holdings charter:
+      - No existing subsidiary duplicates this charter
+      - No existing template or tool can solve this gap
+      - No proposal for this company has been submitted in the last 30 days
+      - A full business plan with market research is provided
+
+      This proposal requires David Baity's explicit approval before any action is taken.
+      No company will be created until approval is received.
+
+      Output ONLY the document content. Start with the # Proposal heading.
+
+  - type: document
+    source_step: 9
+    dest_path: "deliverables/proposals/proposal-{task.id}.md"
+    commit_msg: "proposal: company_proposal task={task.id}"
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 3000
+    hint: |
+      You just wrote a company proposal. Update the proposal index.
+
+      Read the current index content:
+      {prior_proposals}
+
+      Append a new entry at the bottom of the "## Submitted Proposals" section.
+      Use this exact format:
+
+      ### [Company Full Name] -- Task {task.id}
+      Date: 2026-04-29
+      Status: AWAITING DAVID'S APPROVAL
+      Summary: [2-3 sentences: what was proposed, what gap it fills, key differentiator
+                from any prior proposals]
+
+      Output the COMPLETE updated index file content from the very beginning.
+      Do not truncate. Do not skip sections. Include all prior entries plus the new one.
+
+  - type: document
+    source_step: index_update
+    dest_path: "deliverables/proposals/index.md"
+    commit_msg: "index: add proposal {task.id} to proposal index"
+
+  - type: reply
+    target: channel
+    channel_name: "crimson_leaf:general"
+    hint: |
+      Write a brief, professional message to David announcing that a company proposal
+      is ready for his review.
+
+      Include:
+      - Which company is being proposed (name and slug)
+      - The core gap it addresses (one sentence)
+      - Key market data found (one statistic with citation)
+      - Where to find the full proposal (Gitea: pae/crimson_leaf/deliverables/proposals/)
+      - A clear request for approval or feedback
+
+      Keep it to 4-6 lines. Professional tone. No fluff.
+
+adjudication:
+  enabled: false
+  - type: tool
+    action: git_read_file
+    params:
+      path: "deliverables/proposals/index.md"
+    output_key: prior_proposals
+    optional: true
+
   - type: think
     max_tokens: 2000
     output_key: exec_summary

templates/market_intelligence.yml

@@ -1,8 +1,133 @@
 name: market_intelligence
-description: "Orion scans the macroeconomic landscape, identifies profitable niches and internal capability gaps, and produces a structured opportunity brief for the board."
+description: "Orion scans the macroeconomic landscape, identifies profitable niches and internal capability gaps, and produces a structured opportunity brief for the board. Uses web research for evidence grounding."
 debug: true
 system: agent_prompt
 
+agent_prompt:
+  - "= identity.md"
+
+sections:
+  - agent
+  - project
+  - rag
+  - roster
+  - deliverables
+  - message
+  - instructions
+
+steps:
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 400
+    output_key: search_query
+    hint: |
+      You are Orion, Director of Market Intelligence at Crimson Leaf LLC.
+
+      Your task is to identify profitable market opportunities for Crimson Leaf.
+      Before deep analysis, you need real-world market data.
+
+      Formulate ONE precise web search query that will return the most useful
+      current data about market opportunities in AI-generated content, digital
+      publishing, or autonomous business systems.
+
+      Focus on: market size, growth rates, underserved niches, or competitive gaps.
+
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: last_text
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 6
+    fetch_pages: 3
+    optional: true
+    output_key: market_data
+
+  - type: think
+    hint: |
+      You are {agent.name}, Director of Market Intelligence at Crimson Leaf LLC.
+
+      Your job is to find what nobody else has found yet. Not trends -- vectors.
+      Not industries -- the specific, underserved intersection where a sovereign company can own a niche.
+
+      === WEB RESEARCH DATA ===
+      {market_data}
+      === END RESEARCH DATA ===
+
+      Use the research data above as evidence. Cite specific findings with [Title](URL)
+      inline wherever you reference external data. If the research is empty or unhelpful,
+      note that and rely on structural analysis.
+
+      Analyze the opportunity space across four lenses:
+
+      1. MACROECONOMIC SIGNAL
+         What large-scale forces (technology shifts, regulatory changes, platform consolidation,
+         demographic movement) are creating gaps in the B2B service landscape?
+         Cite data from the research where available.
+
+      2. PORTFOLIO DEFICIT SCAN
+         What capabilities does the current Crimson Leaf portfolio lack?
+         What requests are being delegated externally that could be internalized?
+         What value is leaving the portfolio that a new Tenant could capture?
+
+      3. NICHE VALIDATION
+         For each identified opportunity:
+         - Is the niche narrow enough to be owned by one sovereign Tenant?
+         - Is there a clearly defined customer or internal requester?
+         - Is there a measurable value thesis (revenue, cost reduction, strategic leverage)?
+         - Can this be solved by extending an existing Tenant, or does it require a new company?
+         - Could a deterministic tool solve this instead of a sovereign company?
+
+      4. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
+         Who currently occupies this niche externally? (Cite sources if available.)
+         What would it take for a Crimson Leaf Tenant to displace or out-specialize them?
+         Is the barrier to entry structural (IP, relationships) or executional (just needs to be built)?
+
+      Rank opportunities by: niche_clarity x value_thesis_strength x portfolio_fit.
+      Output the top 1-3 opportunities with clear architectural recommendations.
+
+  - type: package
+    packet_type: MarketIntelligenceReport
+    hint: |
+      Serialize the intelligence findings into a structured brief.
+      Only what was established above -- no new reasoning.
+    schema:
+      actions:
+        - type: quick
+          scan_summary: "string -- one paragraph overview of the opportunity landscape"
+          opportunities:
+            - niche: "string -- precise description of the market gap"
+              target_customer: "string -- who specifically needs this"
+              value_thesis: "string -- measurable value created"
+              portfolio_fit: "string -- how this complements the existing Tenant ecosystem"
+              recommendation: "string -- NEW_COMPANY | EXTEND_EXISTING | TOOL_REQUEST | MONITOR"
+              recommended_tenant_slug: "string -- suggested slug if NEW_COMPANY, or existing tenant if EXTEND_EXISTING"
+              priority: "string -- HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW"
+              rationale: "string -- constitutional justification for the recommendation"
+              sources: ["string -- [Title](URL) citation used as evidence for this opportunity"]
+          strategic_gaps: ["string -- capability gaps in the current portfolio worth monitoring"]
+          next_action: "string -- specific recommended next step for the board"
+
+  - type: close
+    rag_update: true
+
+adjudication:
+  enabled: true
+  pass_threshold: 85
+  deliverable_type: coordination
+  criteria:
+    niche_precision:
+      weight: 35
+      description: "Opportunities are narrow, specific, and genuinely differentiated -- not broad industry categories"
+    constitutional_discipline:
+      weight: 25
+      description: "Recommendations distinguish correctly between new company vs extend existing vs tool -- no shortcuts"
+    evidence_quality:
+      weight: 25
+      description: "Findings are grounded in research data and structural analysis with citations, not trend-following or narrative flair"
+    portfolio_coherence:
+      weight: 15
+      description: "Opportunities strengthen the portfolio without creating overlap or recursive dependency"
+
 agent_prompt:
   - "= identity.md"
 

templates/research_brief.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,186 @@
+name: research_brief
+description: "Deep-research a business topic and produce an annotated brief with citations. Use before writing proposals, strategies, or market plans."
+debug: true
+model: power
+sections:
+  - agent
+  - project
+  - rag
+  - message
+  - instructions
+
+steps:
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 600
+    output_key: query_plan
+    hint: |
+      You are a professional business researcher. Your task is to produce a
+      fully cited research brief on the following topic:
+
+      TOPIC: {message}
+
+      Plan your research. Generate exactly 4 search queries that together will
+      cover the topic from multiple angles:
+        Query 1: Market size, growth rate, and TAM
+        Query 2: Key players, competitors, and pricing
+        Query 3: Customer pain points, demand drivers, and trends
+        Query 4: Case studies, success stories, or failure patterns
+
+      Output ONLY a numbered list of 4 queries. No commentary.
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 100
+    output_key: q1
+    hint: |
+      Extract only query 1 from the list above. Output ONLY the query text.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: last_text
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 6
+    fetch_pages: 3
+    optional: true
+    output_key: research_market
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 100
+    output_key: q2
+    hint: |
+      From the original query plan:
+      {query_plan}
+
+      Extract only query 2. Output ONLY the query text.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: last_text
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 5
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: research_competitors
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 100
+    output_key: q3
+    hint: |
+      From the original query plan:
+      {query_plan}
+
+      Extract only query 3. Output ONLY the query text.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: last_text
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 5
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: research_trends
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 100
+    output_key: q4
+    hint: |
+      From the original query plan:
+      {query_plan}
+
+      Extract only query 4. Output ONLY the query text.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: last_text
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 4
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: research_cases
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 6000
+    output_key: research_document
+    hint: |
+      You are a professional business researcher. Write a comprehensive research brief.
+      Use ALL of the research gathered below as your primary source material.
+      Cite every factual claim using [Title](URL) inline markdown links.
+      Do NOT invent statistics. If the research is thin on a topic, say so honestly.
+
+      TOPIC: {message}
+
+      === MARKET SIZE AND GROWTH RESEARCH ===
+      {research_market}
+
+      === COMPETITOR AND PRICING RESEARCH ===
+      {research_competitors}
+
+      === TRENDS AND DEMAND RESEARCH ===
+      {research_trends}
+
+      === CASE STUDIES AND PATTERNS ===
+      {research_cases}
+
+      Write the research brief with this structure:
+
+      # Research Brief: [Topic Title]
+      Date: [today]
+      Prepared for: Crimson Leaf Holdings
+
+      ## Executive Summary
+      2-3 paragraph overview of the most important findings.
+      What does this market look like? Is it a good opportunity?
+
+      ## Market Size and Growth
+      Specific numbers, growth rates, projections. Cite every figure.
+
+      ## Competitive Landscape
+      Who are the players? What do they charge? What is their moat?
+      Where are the gaps? Cite sources.
+
+      ## Demand Drivers and Customer Pain Points
+      What is driving demand? What problems are unsolved?
+      Who is the customer and what do they want? Cite sources.
+
+      ## Case Studies and Evidence
+      Real examples of success or failure in this space.
+      What can Crimson Leaf learn from these? Cite sources.
+
+      ## Strategic Assessment for Crimson Leaf
+      Given everything above, is this a viable opportunity for CL?
+      What is the entry strategy? What risks must be managed?
+      What should happen next?
+
+      ## Source Index
+      List all sources cited in this document:
+      - [Title](URL)
+
+  - type: document
+    source_step: 8
+    dest_path: "deliverables/research/research-{task.id}.md"
+    commit_msg: "research: brief for task={task.id}"
+
+  - type: reply
+    target: channel
+    channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
+    hint: |
+      Briefly announce that a research brief has been completed and saved.
+      Include: topic, number of sources cited, path in Gitea.
+      Keep to 2-3 lines.
+
+adjudication:
+  enabled: true
+  pass_threshold: 80
+  deliverable_type: research
+  criteria:
+    citation_quality:
+      weight: 40
+      description: "Every factual claim is backed by a real citation in [Title](URL) format -- no invented statistics"
+    coverage_depth:
+      weight: 30
+      description: "All four research angles covered (market, competitors, trends, cases) with substantive findings"
+    strategic_relevance:
+      weight: 20
+      description: "Strategic assessment is specific to Crimson Leaf and actionable"
+    honest_gaps:
+      weight: 10
+      description: "Research gaps are acknowledged honestly rather than papered over with vague language"