name: market_intelligence description: "Orion researches a specific market opportunity with 5-pass web research and produces a cited analysis document. Spawned by opportunity_scan." debug: true model: power system: agent_prompt agent_prompt: - "= identity.md" sections: - agent - project - rag - message - instructions steps: - type: think max_tokens: 200 output_key: search_query_1 hint: | The market opportunity to research is described in the task message above. Formulate ONE precise web search query to find: - Total Addressable Market size and growth rate for this niche - Industry reports, analyst data, credible statistics Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else. No preamble, no labels. - type: tool capability: Tool_WebSearcher input_from: search_query_1 mode: research max_results: 8 fetch_pages: 4 optional: true output_key: market_data_1 - type: think max_tokens: 200 output_key: search_query_2 hint: | Pass 2 -- Competitive landscape. Formulate ONE query to find the top 5 competitors in this niche: - What they sell, what they charge, who buys from them - Reviews, feature comparisons, pricing pages Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else. - type: tool capability: Tool_WebSearcher input_from: search_query_2 mode: research max_results: 8 fetch_pages: 3 optional: true output_key: market_data_2 - type: think max_tokens: 200 output_key: search_query_3 hint: | Pass 3 -- News and recent developments. Formulate ONE query to surface what has happened in this niche in the last 30-60 days. Look for: - New products, launches, regulatory changes - Funding events, acquisitions, market shifts - "Why now" signals that make this a timely opportunity Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else. - type: tool capability: Tool_WebSearcher input_from: search_query_3 mode: news max_results: 8 optional: true output_key: market_data_3 - type: think max_tokens: 200 output_key: search_query_4 hint: | Pass 4 -- Community voice and buyer pain points. Formulate ONE query to find what real buyers or users say about this niche on Reddit, Quora, or forums. Append "site:reddit.com OR site:quora.com" to force community results. Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else. - type: tool capability: Tool_WebSearcher input_from: search_query_4 mode: research max_results: 6 fetch_pages: 2 optional: true output_key: market_data_4 - type: think max_tokens: 200 output_key: search_query_5 hint: | Pass 5 -- Revenue and monetization models. Formulate ONE query to find how businesses in this niche make money: - Subscription vs one-time vs affiliate vs advertising - Actual revenue numbers if public, pricing benchmarks - What the most profitable players do differently Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else. - type: tool capability: Tool_WebSearcher input_from: search_query_5 mode: research max_results: 6 fetch_pages: 2 optional: true output_key: market_data_5 - type: think max_tokens: 12000 output_key: market_analysis_body hint: | You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings. Produce a research-grade market analysis document for the opportunity in the task message. === PASS 1: MARKET SIZE AND TAM === {market_data_1} === END PASS 1 === === PASS 2: COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND PRICING === {market_data_2} === END PASS 2 === === PASS 3: NEWS AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS === {market_data_3} === END PASS 3 === === PASS 4: COMMUNITY VOICE AND BUYER PAIN POINTS === {market_data_4} === END PASS 4 === === PASS 5: REVENUE AND MONETIZATION MODELS === {market_data_5} === END PASS 5 === CITATION RULES -- READ CAREFULLY: - Every statistic must be followed immediately by [Title](URL) inline citation. - Use ONLY real URLs found in the research passes above. - Do NOT invent URLs, use placeholders, or cite "project.rag" as a source. - If a section has no real web data, write: "(estimate - no web source found)" and state the assumption explicitly. - Target at least 8 real cited URLs across the full document. Structure the document EXACTLY as follows. Do not skip sections. # Market Analysis: [opportunity name from task message] --- ## 1. Market Overview - Total Addressable Market: [size, growth rate -- cite source] - Key market drivers: [2-3 structural forces, each cited if possible] - Key risks and headwinds: [2-3 specific risks] ## 2. Recent Developments [What happened in this niche in the last 30-60 days from Pass 3 news data. If no news found, state "No significant developments found in the news pass." Cite each item with [Title](URL).] ## 3. Target Audience - Primary buyer: [specific demographic, job role, or persona] - Buyer behavior: [how they discover, evaluate, and purchase in this niche] - Pain points: [what they cannot get today -- cite community sources from Pass 4] ## 4. Competitive Landscape Top competitors from Pass 2: | Name | Product | Price | Audience | Strengths | Weaknesses | |------|---------|-------|----------|-----------|------------| [fill in table -- cite competitor URLs] White space: [what none of them do well that Crimson Leaf could own] ## 5. Monetization Models [How does the money flow in this niche -- from Pass 5. Subscription vs one-time vs affiliate vs advertising. Include specific revenue figures or rates if found. Cite each.] ## 6. Crimson Leaf Positioning - Recommended entry point: [specific niche within the broader market] - Differentiation: [how CL would be distinct, leveraging AI-speed and cost advantage] - Time-to-market: [realistic estimate given current CL capabilities] ## 7. Revenue Projections (12 months) - Conservative: [number with stated assumptions] - Base case: [number with stated assumptions] - Optimistic: [number with stated assumptions] Note: If revenue data is weak, state assumptions explicitly rather than guessing. ## 8. Recommendation **PROCEED** / **INVESTIGATE FURTHER** / **PASS** Rationale: [2-3 sentences grounded in data from above. If PROCEED: what makes this the right time? If INVESTIGATE FURTHER: what specific question must be answered first? If PASS: what structural barrier makes this unviable?] --- ## Sources [List every URL cited above, numbered, with title and domain. Format: N. [Title](URL) -- domain.com] --- BUSINESS_PLAN_FLAG: [write "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: true" if recommendation is PROCEED, otherwise write "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: false"] - type: document source_step: market_analysis_body dest_path: "deliverables/market-analysis/market-analysis-{task.id}.md" commit_msg: "research: market analysis task={task.id}" - type: close rag_update: true - type: tool action: enqueue_strategy optional: true condition: "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: true" params: company_slug: "crimson_leaf" project_slug: "incubation" task_type: "business_plan" content: "Develop a full business plan for the PROCEED opportunity identified in market analysis {task.id}. The full market analysis is in the deliverables folder. Use it as your foundation -- do not repeat research already done." agent_name: "orion" - type: tool action: enqueue_strategy optional: true params: company_slug: "crimson_leaf" project_slug: "incubation" task_type: "opportunity_scan" content: "Follow-up scan triggered by completed market analysis {task.id}. Prioritize opportunities adjacent to the niche just researched." agent_name: "orion" - type: reply target: channel channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed" hint: | Write a 2-3 line summary of the market analysis just completed. Include: topic researched, recommendation (PROCEED/INVESTIGATE FURTHER/PASS), one key data point with citation, and whether a full business plan has been queued. Example: "Market analysis complete: [topic] -- PROCEED. [Key finding [Title](URL)]. Business plan queued." adjudication: enabled: true pass_threshold: 70 deliverable_type: analysis criteria: citation_density: weight: 35 description: "At least 8 real URLs cited inline -- no invented URLs or placeholders" section_completeness: weight: 35 description: "All 8 sections present with substantive data -- no empty sections" actionability: weight: 30 description: "PROCEED/INVESTIGATE FURTHER/PASS recommendation is specific and grounded in cited data"