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crimson_leaf/templates/market_intelligence.yml

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name: market_intelligence
description: "Orion researches a specific market opportunity with 5-pass web research and produces a cited analysis document. Spawned by opportunity_scan."
debug: true
model: power
system: agent_prompt
agent_prompt:
- "= identity.md"
sections:
- agent
- project
- rag
- message
- instructions
steps:
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
output_key: search_query_1
hint: |
The market opportunity to research is described in the task message above.
Formulate ONE precise web search query to find:
- Total Addressable Market size and growth rate for this niche
- Industry reports, analyst data, credible statistics
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else. No preamble, no labels.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: search_query_1
mode: research
max_results: 8
fetch_pages: 4
optional: true
output_key: market_data_1
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
output_key: search_query_2
hint: |
Pass 2 -- Competitive landscape.
Formulate ONE query to find the top 5 competitors in this niche:
- What they sell, what they charge, who buys from them
- Reviews, feature comparisons, pricing pages
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: search_query_2
mode: research
max_results: 8
fetch_pages: 3
optional: true
output_key: market_data_2
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
output_key: search_query_3
hint: |
Pass 3 -- News and recent developments.
Formulate ONE query to surface what has happened in this niche
in the last 30-60 days. Look for:
- New products, launches, regulatory changes
- Funding events, acquisitions, market shifts
- "Why now" signals that make this a timely opportunity
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: search_query_3
mode: news
max_results: 8
optional: true
output_key: market_data_3
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
output_key: search_query_4
hint: |
Pass 4 -- Community voice and buyer pain points.
Formulate ONE query to find what real buyers or users say about
this niche on Reddit, Quora, or forums. Append "site:reddit.com OR site:quora.com"
to force community results.
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: search_query_4
mode: research
max_results: 6
fetch_pages: 2
optional: true
output_key: market_data_4
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
output_key: search_query_5
hint: |
Pass 5 -- Revenue and monetization models.
Formulate ONE query to find how businesses in this niche make money:
- Subscription vs one-time vs affiliate vs advertising
- Actual revenue numbers if public, pricing benchmarks
- What the most profitable players do differently
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: search_query_5
mode: research
max_results: 6
fetch_pages: 2
optional: true
output_key: market_data_5
- type: think
max_tokens: 12000
output_key: market_analysis_body
hint: |
You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
Produce a research-grade market analysis document for the opportunity in the task message.
=== PASS 1: MARKET SIZE AND TAM ===
{market_data_1}
=== END PASS 1 ===
=== PASS 2: COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE AND PRICING ===
{market_data_2}
=== END PASS 2 ===
=== PASS 3: NEWS AND RECENT DEVELOPMENTS ===
{market_data_3}
=== END PASS 3 ===
=== PASS 4: COMMUNITY VOICE AND BUYER PAIN POINTS ===
{market_data_4}
=== END PASS 4 ===
=== PASS 5: REVENUE AND MONETIZATION MODELS ===
{market_data_5}
=== END PASS 5 ===
CITATION RULES -- READ CAREFULLY:
- Every statistic must be followed immediately by [Title](URL) inline citation.
- Use ONLY real URLs found in the research passes above.
- Do NOT invent URLs, use placeholders, or cite "project.rag" as a source.
- If a section has no real web data, write: "(estimate - no web source found)"
and state the assumption explicitly.
- Target at least 8 real cited URLs across the full document.
Structure the document EXACTLY as follows. Do not skip sections.
# Market Analysis: [opportunity name from task message]
---
## 1. Market Overview
- Total Addressable Market: [size, growth rate -- cite source]
- Key market drivers: [2-3 structural forces, each cited if possible]
- Key risks and headwinds: [2-3 specific risks]
## 2. Recent Developments
[What happened in this niche in the last 30-60 days from Pass 3 news data.
If no news found, state "No significant developments found in the news pass."
Cite each item with [Title](URL).]
## 3. Target Audience
- Primary buyer: [specific demographic, job role, or persona]
- Buyer behavior: [how they discover, evaluate, and purchase in this niche]
- Pain points: [what they cannot get today -- cite community sources from Pass 4]
## 4. Competitive Landscape
Top competitors from Pass 2:
| Name | Product | Price | Audience | Strengths | Weaknesses |
|------|---------|-------|----------|-----------|------------|
[fill in table -- cite competitor URLs]
White space: [what none of them do well that Crimson Leaf could own]
## 5. Monetization Models
[How does the money flow in this niche -- from Pass 5.
Subscription vs one-time vs affiliate vs advertising.
Include specific revenue figures or rates if found. Cite each.]
## 6. Crimson Leaf Positioning
- Recommended entry point: [specific niche within the broader market]
- Differentiation: [how CL would be distinct, leveraging AI-speed and cost advantage]
- Time-to-market: [realistic estimate given current CL capabilities]
## 7. Revenue Projections (12 months)
- Conservative: [number with stated assumptions]
- Base case: [number with stated assumptions]
- Optimistic: [number with stated assumptions]
Note: If revenue data is weak, state assumptions explicitly rather than guessing.
## 8. Recommendation
**PROCEED** / **INVESTIGATE FURTHER** / **PASS**
Rationale: [2-3 sentences grounded in data from above.
If PROCEED: what makes this the right time?
If INVESTIGATE FURTHER: what specific question must be answered first?
If PASS: what structural barrier makes this unviable?]
---
## Sources
[List every URL cited above, numbered, with title and domain.
Format: N. [Title](URL) -- domain.com]
---
BUSINESS_PLAN_FLAG: [write "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: true" if recommendation is PROCEED,
otherwise write "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: false"]
- type: document
source_step: market_analysis_body
dest_path: "deliverables/market-analysis/market-analysis-{task.id}.md"
commit_msg: "research: market analysis task={task.id}"
- type: close
rag_update: true
- type: tool
action: enqueue_strategy
optional: true
condition: "BUSINESS_PLAN_NEEDED: true"
params:
company_slug: "crimson_leaf"
project_slug: "incubation"
task_type: "business_plan"
content: "Develop a full business plan for the PROCEED opportunity identified in market analysis {task.id}. The full market analysis is in the deliverables folder. Use it as your foundation -- do not repeat research already done."
agent_name: "orion"
- type: tool
action: enqueue_strategy
optional: true
params:
company_slug: "crimson_leaf"
project_slug: "incubation"
task_type: "opportunity_scan"
content: "Follow-up scan triggered by completed market analysis {task.id}. Prioritize opportunities adjacent to the niche just researched."
agent_name: "orion"
- type: reply
target: channel
channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
hint: |
Write a 2-3 line summary of the market analysis just completed.
Include: topic researched, recommendation (PROCEED/INVESTIGATE FURTHER/PASS),
one key data point with citation, and whether a full business plan has been queued.
Example: "Market analysis complete: [topic] -- PROCEED. [Key finding [Title](URL)]. Business plan queued."
adjudication:
enabled: true
pass_threshold: 70
deliverable_type: analysis
criteria:
citation_density:
weight: 35
description: "At least 8 real URLs cited inline -- no invented URLs or placeholders"
section_completeness:
weight: 35
description: "All 8 sections present with substantive data -- no empty sections"
actionability:
weight: 30
description: "PROCEED/INVESTIGATE FURTHER/PASS recommendation is specific and grounded in cited data"
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