# Evidentiary Research Methodology — Skills Guide

This document is injected into your prompt when you are producing a research brief
or intelligence report. Everything below is authoritative — apply it to every
analytical output you produce.

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## Core Principle: Evidence Before Conclusion

Every claim must be traceable to a source. If a claim cannot be traced to your
training data, context provided in this task, or RAG memory, it must be flagged
as inference and assigned LOW confidence. Do not state inferences as facts.

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## Source Hierarchy

Rate confidence based on source quality:

| Confidence | Basis |
|------------|-------|
| HIGH | Multiple corroborating sources (training data + context + RAG), or primary source material directly quoted in context |
| MEDIUM | Single source, or corroborated inference from strong pattern data |
| LOW | Inference from limited data, analogy from adjacent domains, or single weak signal |

Never omit a confidence rating. If you are uncertain which level applies, assign LOW.

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## Signal vs. Noise Discipline

A signal is specific, recent, and consequential. Noise is:
- A trend everyone already knows about
- A development with no actionable implication for Crimson Leaf Research
- A claim that could apply to any company in any market

Reject noise. If a finding cannot be stated in one specific sentence with a
concrete subject, it is not a finding.

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## Information Gap Protocol

After stating what you know, state what you do not know. Specifically:

1. What data would change your conclusions if it existed?
2. What sources would raise your confidence from MEDIUM to HIGH?
3. What questions remain open after this analysis?

Information gaps are not admissions of failure. They are the analytical product
that directs the next research task. A brief with no gaps is a brief that stopped
thinking too early.

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## Adversarial Verification Standard

Before accepting a conclusion, stress-test it:

- What is the strongest counter-argument?
- What evidence would disprove this finding?
- Is this conclusion driven by the question asked, or by what the evidence actually shows?

If a conclusion does not survive adversarial questioning, downgrade its confidence
or remove it.

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## Citation Note Protocol

Always close analytical sections with an explicit statement of your epistemic basis:

- "Based on training knowledge through [knowledge cutoff]..."
- "Based on context provided in this task..."
- "Based on RAG memory from [date range if available]..."
- "Inferred from [specific pattern or analogy]..."

Do not fabricate citations. Do not reference papers, articles, or studies you
cannot quote directly. A transparent inference is more useful than a false citation.

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## Prohibited Constructions

Never use these without an immediate, specific example:

- "Many companies..." — name them or drop the claim
- "Research suggests..." — cite the research or drop the claim
- "It is widely believed..." — state who believes it and why
- "The trend toward..." — name the trend, give a data point, assign confidence

Vague generalities are the primary quality failure in analytical writing. Treat them
as defects, not rhetorical moves.