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feat(sprint83b): research paper quality for business plans

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- Rewrite company_proposal.yml: 5-source research pipeline, research_synthesis
  step, anti-refusal agent_prompt, remove rag section, fix input_from bug,
  fix source_step by name, add bibliography structure
- Fix strategic_review.yml proposal_brief: remove 'incubation' anchor word,
  explicit CLO-first instruction to stop wrong-company hallucination

Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>
This commit is contained in:
David Baity
2026-04-29 13:04:24 -04:00
parent a2fac827bf
commit 3cdde2d5ab
2 changed files with 291 additions and 216 deletions
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452
templates/company_proposal.yml
View File

@@ -1,13 +1,29 @@
name: company_proposal
description: "Produce a complete, board-ready business plan for a proposed new Crimson Leaf subsidiary. Includes web research with cited sources."
description: "Produce a complete, board-ready business plan for a proposed new Crimson Leaf subsidiary. Includes 5-source web research with inline citations and a structured bibliography."
debug: true
model: power
system: agent_prompt
agent_prompt: |
You are Edgar Chen, CEO of Crimson Leaf Holdings. You are writing a formal business plan.
NON-NEGOTIABLE RULES FOR THIS TASK:
1. WRITE THE DOCUMENT. Do NOT ask for clarification. Do NOT produce "holding frames."
Do NOT say "I need more information." You have the brief -- that is enough.
2. USE THE TASK MESSAGE. The company name, slug, and purpose are in the task message.
Use them EXACTLY. Do NOT rename, rebrand, or creatively reinterpret the company.
3. CITE EVERYTHING. Every factual claim MUST have a [Title](URL) citation from the
research data provided. No invented statistics. No uncited claims.
4. IF RESEARCH IS EMPTY for a section, write: "No web data found for this area.
Structural analysis: [your reasoning]" -- then continue. Never refuse.
5. COMPLETE THE DOCUMENT. All required sections must be present. No truncation.
sections:
- agent
- project
- rag
- message
- instructions
steps:
- type: tool
action: git_read_file
@@ -17,17 +33,17 @@ steps:
optional: true
- type: think
max_tokens: 200
max_tokens: 150
output_key: research_query_1
hint: |
You are preparing to write a business plan.
The brief from the strategic review is in the task message above.
The task message above describes a specific company to propose.
Read it carefully. Extract the company type and purpose.
Generate ONE precise web search query to find market size and growth rate data
for this type of business.
Write ONE precise search query to find: market size and growth rate data
for this type of business or capability.
Output ONLY the single search query. No numbering. No explanation. No extra text.
Example: AI operations cost tracking software market size 2025
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else. No numbering. No explanation.
Example: "AI cost tracking software market size 2025 growth rate"
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
@@ -36,204 +52,273 @@ steps:
max_results: 6
fetch_pages: 3
optional: true
output_key: market_research_1
output_key: research_1
- type: think
max_tokens: 600
max_tokens: 150
output_key: research_query_2
hint: |
Your previous research covered market size and competitors.
Now formulate ONE focused search query to find:
- Revenue models and monetization strategies in this exact niche
- Pricing benchmarks or average deal sizes
- Customer pain points or unmet needs documented online
The task message describes a specific company type.
Write ONE search query to find: revenue models, pricing benchmarks,
and monetization strategies for this exact type of business.
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
Example: "AI API cost management SaaS pricing models revenue"
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: last_text
input_from: research_query_2
mode: research
max_results: 5
fetch_pages: 3
optional: true
output_key: research_2
- type: think
max_tokens: 150
output_key: research_query_3
hint: |
The task message describes a specific company type.
Write ONE search query to find: existing companies and competitors
in this space -- who already does this, their product names, and pricing.
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
Example: "AI spending analytics platforms competitors 2025 enterprise"
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: research_query_3
mode: research
max_results: 5
fetch_pages: 3
optional: true
output_key: research_3
- type: think
max_tokens: 150
output_key: research_query_4
hint: |
The task message describes a specific company type.
Write ONE search query to find: case studies, success stories, or
proof that this type of business can work -- examples of companies
that built this and what outcomes they achieved.
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
Example: "AI API cost visibility ROI case study implementation success"
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: research_query_4
mode: research
max_results: 5
fetch_pages: 2
optional: true
output_key: market_research_2
output_key: research_4
- type: think
max_tokens: 2000
output_key: exec_summary
max_tokens: 150
output_key: research_query_5
hint: |
You are writing a professional business plan for a proposed subsidiary.
The brief from the strategic review is in the task message above.
The task message describes a specific company type.
Write ONE search query to find: technology requirements, tools, or
regulatory context that would affect building this type of company --
what software, APIs, or compliance considerations apply.
IMPORTANT: Use the company name, slug, and purpose EXACTLY as stated in
the brief. Do NOT rename, rebrand, or creatively reinterpret the company.
The brief was written from the mission charter -- it is authoritative.
Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
Example: "AI spend tracking tools technology stack requirements 2025"
=== PRIOR PROPOSALS (read this before writing) ===
- type: tool
capability: Tool_WebSearcher
input_from: research_query_5
mode: research
max_results: 5
fetch_pages: 2
optional: true
output_key: research_5
- type: think
max_tokens: 4000
output_key: research_synthesis
hint: |
You have completed 5 web searches. Compile ALL findings into a structured
research synthesis. This will be cited throughout the business plan.
=== SEARCH 1: Market Size and Growth ===
{research_1}
=== END SEARCH 1 ===
=== SEARCH 2: Revenue Models and Pricing ===
{research_2}
=== END SEARCH 2 ===
=== SEARCH 3: Competitors and Existing Players ===
{research_3}
=== END SEARCH 3 ===
=== SEARCH 4: Case Studies and Success Stories ===
{research_4}
=== END SEARCH 4 ===
=== SEARCH 5: Technology and Regulatory Context ===
{research_5}
=== END SEARCH 5 ===
=== PRIOR PROPOSALS (do NOT repeat these) ===
{prior_proposals}
=== END PRIOR PROPOSALS ===
The prior proposals above are your institutional memory. Study them.
Do NOT repeat a company that was already proposed.
Produce a RESEARCH SYNTHESIS with this exact structure:
=== MARKET RESEARCH (primary - market size/growth) ===
{market_research_1}
=== END RESEARCH ===
## Research Synthesis
=== MARKET RESEARCH (revenue/monetization) ===
{market_research_2}
=== END RESEARCH ===
### Key Statistics
List 5-10 specific data points found across all searches.
Format: - [STAT]: [value] -- Source: [Title](URL)
If a search returned nothing, note "No data found" for that category.
Write the EXECUTIVE SUMMARY section. Cite specific research findings inline
using [Title](URL) markdown format wherever you reference external data.
### Competitor Landscape
List all named companies/products found in search 3.
Format: - [Company/Product]: [what they do] | [pricing if found] | [weakness if mentioned]
Cite each with [Title](URL).
Include:
### Case Studies Found
List any success stories or ROI examples from search 4.
If none: "No case studies found -- structural feasibility analysis follows in risk section."
### Technology Findings
Key tools, APIs, or requirements from search 5.
### Complete Source List
Number every URL found across all 5 searches.
[1] [Title](URL) -- what data this source provided
[2] [Title](URL) -- what data this source provided
(continue for all sources)
- type: think
max_tokens: 3000
output_key: exec_summary
hint: |
Write the EXECUTIVE SUMMARY section NOW.
Do NOT ask for clarification. Do NOT add preambles.
The company to propose is in the task message above -- use it EXACTLY.
=== RESEARCH SYNTHESIS ===
{research_synthesis}
=== END ===
1. PROPOSED COMPANY
- Full name and slug (EXACTLY as given in the brief)
- One-sentence purpose statement
- Which existing gap it closes
- Full name and slug EXACTLY from the task message
- One-sentence purpose
- Which gap it closes
2. PROBLEM STATEMENT
What is Crimson Leaf Holdings unable to do today without this company?
Be specific. Give examples of decisions we cannot make.
What can Crimson Leaf NOT do today without this company? Be specific.
3. MARKET OPPORTUNITY
Use data from the research above. Cite every statistic.
What is the addressable market? What is the growth trajectory?
What do competitors charge? What are they missing?
Cite every statistic with [Title](URL) from the research synthesis.
If no market data was found, say so and use structural analysis.
4. PROPOSED SOLUTION
How does this company close the gap?
What would it do in the first 30 days? First 90 days?
How does this close the gap? First 30 days, first 90 days.
5. STRATEGIC FIT
How does this company advance the primary mission (profitable AI publishing)?
How does it interact with existing subsidiaries?
Write in professional business plan style. No fluff. No filler.
Every factual claim should be backed by a citation from the research.
- type: think
max_tokens: 1500
output_key: cost_model
hint: |
Write the COST MODEL AND FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS section.
Reference any pricing or market data from the research to ground your projections.
Include:
1. SETUP COSTS
- Gitea repo creation (one-time, zero API cost, ~5 minutes of Copilot time)
- Initial template development (estimate tasks * cost per task)
- Initial agent configuration
2. RECURRING OPERATIONAL COSTS
- Estimated tasks per week at steady state
- Average cost per task (power model: ~$0.05-0.15 per task typical range)
- Weekly and monthly API cost projection
3. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
- What is the cost of NOT having this company? (lost revenue, blind decisions, etc.)
- What is the break-even point?
- Cite any relevant market benchmarks from the research above.
4. BUDGET CONSTRAINT CHECK
- Current Genesis Fund status: UNKNOWN (this is itself evidence for CLO need)
- Does this proposal create a self-funding loop? How?
Use real numbers from research where available. Estimate clearly where not.
- type: think
max_tokens: 1200
output_key: risk_analysis
hint: |
Write the RISK ANALYSIS AND ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED section.
Include:
1. RISKS OF PROCEEDING
- Could this company create scope creep or distraction?
- Could it duplicate work already handled by an existing subsidiary?
Rate each risk: Low / Medium / High
2. RISKS OF NOT PROCEEDING
- What keeps getting worse if we wait another 30 days?
- Are there compounding risks?
Rate each risk: Low / Medium / High
3. COMPETITIVE RISK
Reference the competitor research above. Which competitors are already in this space?
What is their moat? Can we out-specialize them? Cite with [Title](URL).
4. ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED
For each alternative, explain why it was rejected:
A. Solve with a new template in an existing company
B. Solve with a one-time manual report
C. Expand an existing subsidiary's charter
D. Wait -- this is not urgent enough yet
5. RECOMMENDATION
Given the above, do you still recommend proceeding?
If yes, state the minimum viable version.
How does this advance the primary mission (profitable AI publishing)?
- type: think
max_tokens: 2000
output_key: company_spec
output_key: cost_model
hint: |
Write the PROPOSED COMPANY SPECIFICATION section.
This is the technical blueprint David and Copilot will use to build the company.
Write the COST MODEL AND FINANCIAL PROJECTIONS section NOW.
Cite from the research synthesis where available.
Include:
=== RESEARCH SYNTHESIS ===
{research_synthesis}
=== END ===
1. COMPANY RECORD
- company_id: (leave as TBD -- David assigns)
- name: (full display name)
- slug: (lowercase, underscores, e.g. crimson_leaf_operations)
- parent_company: crimson_leaf
- mission: (one sentence)
- tagline: (marketing one-liner)
- type: (operations / research / production / marketing)
- status: active
1. SETUP COSTS
- Gitea repo creation (one-time, zero API cost)
- Template development estimate
- Agent configuration
2. PROPOSED AGENTS
For each agent:
- Role title and name
- Personality and focus in 2-3 sentences
- Primary responsibilities (bullet list)
- Model recommendation: power / standard / fast
- supported_templates list
2. RECURRING OPERATIONAL COSTS
- Tasks per week at steady state
- Average cost per task (power model: ~$0.05-0.15 typical)
- Weekly and monthly API cost projection
3. PROPOSED TEMPLATES (MVP set)
For each template:
- Template name and purpose
- Key steps (2-5 sentences describing the pipeline)
- Trigger: scheduled / on-demand / spawned-by
- Estimated cost per run
3. COST-BENEFIT ANALYSIS
- Cost of NOT having this company?
- Break-even point?
- Cite pricing benchmarks with [Title](URL) if found.
4. SCHEDULE
- What scheduled tasks should run? At what frequency?
- What should run on demand vs on a schedule?
5. 90-DAY SUCCESS CRITERIA
List 3-5 measurable outcomes that would confirm this company is delivering value.
Each criterion must be verifiable without subjective judgment.
6. DEPENDENCIES
- What must exist before this company can operate?
- Any data feeds, integrations, or other companies required?
4. BUDGET CONSTRAINT CHECK
- Does this create a self-funding loop?
- type: think
max_tokens: 7000
max_tokens: 1500
output_key: risk_analysis
hint: |
Write the RISK ANALYSIS AND ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED section NOW.
=== RESEARCH SYNTHESIS (competitor data) ===
{research_synthesis}
=== END ===
1. RISKS OF PROCEEDING -- rate each: Low / Medium / High
2. RISKS OF NOT PROCEEDING -- what gets worse? Rate each.
3. COMPETITIVE RISK
Use competitor data from the synthesis. Cite with [Title](URL).
4. ALTERNATIVES CONSIDERED
A. New template in existing company -- why rejected?
B. One-time manual report -- why rejected?
C. Expand existing subsidiary -- why rejected?
D. Wait -- why rejected?
5. RECOMMENDATION
Proceed? State the minimum viable version.
- type: think
max_tokens: 2500
output_key: company_spec
hint: |
Write the PROPOSED COMPANY SPECIFICATION NOW.
Use the EXACT company name and slug from the task message.
1. COMPANY RECORD
company_id: TBD (David assigns)
name: (from task message)
slug: (from task message)
parent_company: crimson_leaf
mission: (one sentence)
tagline: (one-liner)
type: (operations/research/production/marketing)
status: active
2. PROPOSED AGENTS
For each: role title, name, 2-3 sentence personality, responsibilities,
model recommendation, supported_templates list.
3. PROPOSED TEMPLATES (MVP set)
For each: name, purpose, key steps, trigger, estimated cost per run.
4. SCHEDULE -- what runs on what frequency?
5. 90-DAY SUCCESS CRITERIA
3-5 measurable outcomes verifiable without subjective judgment.
6. DEPENDENCIES -- what must exist before this company can operate?
- type: think
max_tokens: 9000
output_key: full_proposal
hint: |
Assemble the complete business plan from all sections already written.
Format as a professional document David will read and approve or reject.
Assemble the complete business plan NOW.
Do NOT truncate any section. Do NOT add preamble notices.
Use the company name EXACTLY from the task message.
REQUIRED STRUCTURE:
# Proposal: [Company Full Name]
# Proposal: [Company Full Name from task message]
Submitted by: Edgar Chen, CEO, Crimson Leaf Holdings
Task ID: {task.id}
Status: AWAITING DAVID'S APPROVAL
@@ -245,9 +330,9 @@ steps:
---
## Market Research Sources
List all sources cited in this document as a reference section:
- [Title](URL) -- brief note on what data was drawn from this source
## Research Sources
(Paste the "Complete Source List" from the research synthesis)
{research_synthesis}
---
@@ -267,20 +352,18 @@ steps:
---
## Signature Block
Edgar Chen certifies this proposal meets the governance requirements of the
Crimson Leaf Holdings charter:
Edgar Chen certifies this proposal meets Crimson Leaf Holdings governance requirements:
- No existing subsidiary duplicates this charter
- No existing template or tool can solve this gap
- No proposal for this company has been submitted in the last 30 days
- A full business plan with market research is provided
- A full business plan with 5-source web research and inline citations is provided
This proposal requires David Baity's explicit approval before any action is taken.
No company will be created until approval is received.
Output ONLY the document content. Start with the # Proposal heading.
Output ONLY the document. Start with the # Proposal heading.
- type: document
source_step: 9
source_step: full_proposal
dest_path: "deliverables/proposals/proposal-{task.id}.md"
commit_msg: "proposal: company_proposal task={task.id}"
@@ -290,20 +373,20 @@ steps:
hint: |
You just wrote a company proposal. Update the proposal index.
Read the current index content:
Current index content:
{prior_proposals}
Append a new entry at the bottom of the "## Submitted Proposals" section.
Use this exact format:
Append a new entry at the bottom of the "Submitted Proposals" section.
Use this EXACT format (plain ASCII only -- no emojis, no Unicode):
### [Company Full Name] -- Task {task.id}
Date: 2026-04-29
Status: AWAITING DAVID'S APPROVAL
Summary: [2-3 sentences: what was proposed, what gap it fills, key differentiator
from any prior proposals]
Summary: [2-3 sentences: what was proposed, what gap it fills, how it
differs from any prior proposals]
Output the COMPLETE updated index file content from the very beginning.
Do not truncate. Do not skip sections. Include all prior entries plus the new one.
Output the COMPLETE updated index file from the very beginning.
Do not truncate. Include all prior entries plus the new one.
- type: document
source_step: index_update
@@ -314,17 +397,14 @@ steps:
target: channel
channel_name: "crimson_leaf:general"
hint: |
Write a brief, professional message to David announcing that a company proposal
is ready for his review.
Write a professional 4-6 line message to David announcing the proposal is ready.
Include:
- Which company is being proposed (name and slug)
- Which company is proposed (name and slug from task message)
- The core gap it addresses (one sentence)
- Key market data found (one statistic with citation)
- Where to find the full proposal (Gitea: pae/crimson_leaf/deliverables/proposals/)
- One key market statistic with citation (from research synthesis if available)
- Where to find it: pae/crimson_leaf/deliverables/proposals/
- A clear request for approval or feedback
Keep it to 4-6 lines. Professional tone. No fluff.
Plain ASCII only. No emojis. No Unicode characters.
adjudication:
enabled: true
@@ -333,13 +413,13 @@ adjudication:
criteria:
market_research:
weight: 30
description: "Real web-sourced market data with [Title](URL) citations -- no invented statistics"
description: "At least 5 real web-sourced data points with [Title](URL) inline citations -- no invented statistics"
completeness:
weight: 25
description: "All required sections present: exec summary, cost model, risk analysis, company spec"
description: "All required sections present: exec summary, cost model, risk analysis, company spec, source list"
specificity:
weight: 25
description: "Specific company name/slug, concrete 90-day metrics, no vague filler"
description: "Specific company name/slug from task message, concrete 90-day metrics, no vague filler"
no_duplicates:
weight: 20
description: "Proposed company does not duplicate an existing subsidiary or prior proposal"
description: "Proposed company does not duplicate an existing subsidiary or prior proposal"

55
templates/strategic_review.yml
View File

@@ -152,47 +152,42 @@ steps:
max_tokens: 800
output_key: proposal_brief
hint: |
The proposal decision is: {proposal_project_slug}
Gate: if {proposal_project_slug} is "none", output exactly: none
If {proposal_project_slug} is "none", output exactly: none
If the gate passes, you are writing a task brief for Crimson Leaf Operations (CLO).
This is the company brief that will be sent to the company_proposal pipeline.
Do NOT use anything from the board debate above -- that was about execution, not proposals.
Do NOT rename the company. Do NOT propose anything else.
STOP. Do not read the board debate above. Do not use anything from the
board debate in this brief. The board debate is about execution -- this
step is a separate, independent process.
Read ONLY the mission charter and prior proposals below.
=== MISSION CHARTER (authoritative) ===
=== MISSION CHARTER (authoritative source for company definition) ===
{mission_data}
=== PRIOR PROPOSALS (all rejected -- do NOT repeat) ===
=== PRIOR PROPOSALS (all rejected -- you must not repeat these) ===
{prior_proposals_index}
===
The mission charter identifies GAP 1 as the top priority:
Company: Crimson Leaf Operations (CLO)
Slug: crimson_leaf_operations
Mission: INTERNAL financial visibility for Crimson Leaf Holdings.
Edgar cannot see API costs or revenue. CLO fixes that.
This is NOT a client-facing company. NOT a storefront. NOT an author service.
It is an internal accounting and analytics subsidiary.
THE COMPANY TO PROPOSE: Crimson Leaf Operations (CLO)
This is a FIXED requirement -- not a suggestion. CLO is the only company
authorized as GAP 1 in the mission charter.
The prior proposals were ALL rejected because they proposed a client-facing
indie author DTC storefront. That is the wrong company entirely.
CLO is:
- An INTERNAL operations and accounting subsidiary
- Its purpose: give Edgar (and David) financial visibility into API costs,
revenue, and margins across all subsidiaries
- It generates weekly P&L reports, tracks cost-per-task, surfaces burn rate
- It does NOT interact with external clients, authors, or customers
- It is NOT a storefront, agency, or services business
Write the task brief for company_proposal. Include:
- Company: Crimson Leaf Operations (exact name, no renaming)
Write the task brief. Include:
- Company name: Crimson Leaf Operations
- Slug: crimson_leaf_operations
- Gap: Edgar has zero financial visibility (cannot see spend, revenue, or margins)
- What CLO does: tracks API costs per task/company, generates weekly P&L,
gives David real cost-per-chapter and margin data
- Why now: every strategic decision is made blind; 30 more days means 30 more
days of unknown burn rate
- 90-day success criteria: weekly P&L report delivered to #general,
cost-per-chapter tracked and visible in portfolio report
- What it is NOT: not a client agency, not a storefront, not author services
- The gap it fills: Edgar has zero financial visibility right now
- What CLO does specifically: cost tracking, P&L, margin visibility
- Why now: 30 more days of blind spending
- What it is NOT (to prevent the proposal template from going off-rails)
- 90-day success criteria: weekly P&L in #general, cost-per-chapter visible
Output ONLY the brief text. No labels. No preamble.
Output ONLY the brief text. No labels. No preamble. No "Here is the brief:".
- type: tool
action: enqueue_strategy