feat(sprint83a): competitive_analysis template + dispatch tails + market_intelligence rewrite

- Add templates/competitive_analysis.yml: Sloane's 2x WebSearch competitor matrix pipeline
- Rewrite templates/market_intelligence.yml: 2x WebSearch, 6-section document, dispatch removed duplicate block
- Add dispatch tail to templates/opportunity_scan.yml: 2x market_intelligence enqueue_strategy
- Add dispatch tail to templates/marketing_review.yml: competitive_analysis enqueue_strategy
- Add competitive_analysis to agents/sloane/agent.yml supported_templates

Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>

agents/sloane/agent.yml

@@ -32,4 +32,5 @@ supported_templates:
   - planning
   - boardroom
   - marketing_review
-  - strategic_review
+  - strategic_review
+  - competitive_analysis

templates/competitive_analysis.yml

@@ -0,0 +1,148 @@
+name: competitive_analysis
+description: "Sloane researches a specific competitor, niche, or channel gap with web search and produces a competitor matrix document with CL positioning recommendation."
+debug: true
+model: power
+system: agent_prompt
+
+agent_prompt:
+  - "= identity.md"
+
+sections:
+  - agent
+  - project
+  - rag
+  - message
+  - instructions
+
+steps:
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: search_query_1
+    hint: |
+      The competitor or market segment to research is described in the task message above.
+
+      Formulate ONE precise web search query to find:
+      - Direct competitors in this niche: product names, companies, pricing
+      - Amazon, app store, or marketplace listings for this product type
+
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: search_query_1
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 6
+    fetch_pages: 3
+    optional: true
+    output_key: competitor_data_1
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: search_query_2
+    hint: |
+      Your first search found competitor products and pricing.
+      Now formulate ONE focused query to find:
+      - How competitors position and market themselves (channels, messaging, audience)
+      - Customer reviews, complaints, or unmet needs in this niche
+
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
+
+  - type: tool
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
+    input_from: search_query_2
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 5
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: competitor_data_2
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 6000
+    output_key: competitor_matrix
+    hint: |
+      You are Sloane, Director of Marketing & Brand Strategy at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
+      Produce a competitor matrix document for the niche described in the task message.
+
+      === COMPETITOR DATA (products / pricing) ===
+      {competitor_data_1}
+      === END COMPETITOR DATA ===
+
+      === AUDIENCE / POSITIONING DATA ===
+      {competitor_data_2}
+      === END AUDIENCE DATA ===
+
+      Cite every data point with [Title](URL) inline.
+      If research is empty, note it and use structural analysis -- do NOT invent facts.
+
+      Structure the document exactly as follows:
+
+      # Competitive Analysis: [niche/topic from task message]
+
+      ---
+
+      ## 1. Competitor Matrix
+
+      | Competitor | Product | Price | Audience | Strengths | Weaknesses |
+      |------------|---------|-------|----------|-----------|------------|
+      [Fill in 3-5 rows from research. Use real names and real prices where found.]
+
+      ## 2. Market Gaps
+      - [What none of the above competitors do well]
+      - [Underserved audience segments]
+      - [Channels or formats competitors ignore]
+
+      ## 3. CL Differentiation Opportunity
+      - Entry point: [specific niche CL could own]
+      - Unique angle: [what would make CL's offering distinct]
+      - Required capabilities: [what CL needs to execute this]
+
+      ## 4. Recommended Positioning
+      - Target customer: [specific description]
+      - Core message: [one sentence value proposition]
+      - Primary channel: [where to reach this audience]
+      - Secondary channel: [backup channel]
+
+      ## 5. Distribution Channels Competitors Use
+      [List channels found in research: social platforms, newsletters, communities, etc.]
+
+      ## 6. Recommendation
+      PURSUE / MONITOR / PASS
+
+      Rationale: [2-3 sentences backed by data from the analysis above]
+
+      ---
+
+      ## Sources
+      [List all cited URLs with titles]
+
+  - type: document
+    source_step: competitor_matrix
+    dest_path: "deliverables/competitive-analysis/competitive-analysis-{task.id}.md"
+    commit_msg: "research: competitive analysis task={task.id}"
+
+  - type: close
+    rag_update: true
+
+  - type: reply
+    target: channel
+    channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
+    hint: |
+      Write a 2-3 line summary of the competitive analysis just completed.
+      Include: what niche was analyzed, the recommendation (PURSUE/MONITOR/PASS),
+      and the single most important gap found.
+      Keep it tight and action-oriented.
+
+adjudication:
+  enabled: true
+  pass_threshold: 70
+  deliverable_type: analysis
+  criteria:
+    specificity:
+      weight: 40
+      description: "Named competitors with real product/price data from web search -- not vague category descriptions"
+    gap_clarity:
+      weight: 35
+      description: "Market gaps clearly identified with evidence from research -- white space is specific and actionable"
+    actionability:
+      weight: 25
+      description: "CL positioning recommendation is concrete and feasible given current capabilities"

templates/market_intelligence.yml

@@ -1,6 +1,7 @@
 name: market_intelligence
-description: "Orion scans the macroeconomic landscape, identifies profitable niches and internal capability gaps, and produces a structured opportunity brief for the board. Uses web research for evidence grounding."
+description: "Orion researches a specific market opportunity with web search and produces a structured analysis document committed to Gitea. Spawned by opportunity_scan."
 debug: true
+model: power
 system: agent_prompt
 
 agent_prompt:
@@ -10,210 +11,137 @@ sections:
   - agent
   - project
   - rag
-  - roster
-  - deliverables
   - message
   - instructions
 
 steps:
   - type: think
-    max_tokens: 400
+    max_tokens: 200
-    output_key: search_query
+    output_key: search_query_1
     hint: |
-      You are Orion, Director of Market Intelligence at Crimson Leaf LLC.
+      The market opportunity to research is described in the task message above.
 
-      Your task is to identify profitable market opportunities for Crimson Leaf.
+      Formulate ONE precise web search query to find:
-      Before deep analysis, you need real-world market data.
+      - Market size and growth rate for this niche
-
+      - Who the key players are and what they offer
-      Formulate ONE precise web search query that will return the most useful
-      current data about market opportunities in AI-generated content, digital
-      publishing, or autonomous business systems.
-
-      Focus on: market size, growth rates, underserved niches, or competitive gaps.
 
       Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
 
   - type: tool
     capability: Tool_WebSearcher
-    input_from: last_text
+    input_from: search_query_1
     mode: research
     max_results: 6
     fetch_pages: 3
     optional: true
-    output_key: market_data
+    output_key: market_data_1
 
   - type: think
+    max_tokens: 200
+    output_key: search_query_2
     hint: |
-      You are {agent.name}, Director of Market Intelligence at Crimson Leaf LLC.
+      Your first search covered market size and key players.
+      Now formulate ONE focused query to find:
+      - Successful products in this niche, what they charge, who buys them
+      - Consumer pain points or unmet needs documented online
 
-      Your job is to find what nobody else has found yet. Not trends -- vectors.
+      Output ONLY the search query. Nothing else.
-      Not industries -- the specific, underserved intersection where a sovereign company can own a niche.
 
-      === WEB RESEARCH DATA ===
+  - type: tool
-      {market_data}
+    capability: Tool_WebSearcher
-      === END RESEARCH DATA ===
+    input_from: search_query_2
+    mode: research
+    max_results: 5
+    fetch_pages: 2
+    optional: true
+    output_key: market_data_2
 
-      Use the research data above as evidence. Cite specific findings with [Title](URL)
+  - type: think
-      inline wherever you reference external data. If the research is empty or unhelpful,
+    max_tokens: 6000
-      note that and rely on structural analysis.
+    output_key: market_analysis_body
-
-      Analyze the opportunity space across four lenses:
-
-      1. MACROECONOMIC SIGNAL
-         What large-scale forces (technology shifts, regulatory changes, platform consolidation,
-         demographic movement) are creating gaps in the B2B service landscape?
-         Cite data from the research where available.
-
-      2. PORTFOLIO DEFICIT SCAN
-         What capabilities does the current Crimson Leaf portfolio lack?
-         What requests are being delegated externally that could be internalized?
-         What value is leaving the portfolio that a new Tenant could capture?
-
-      3. NICHE VALIDATION
-         For each identified opportunity:
-         - Is the niche narrow enough to be owned by one sovereign Tenant?
-         - Is there a clearly defined customer or internal requester?
-         - Is there a measurable value thesis (revenue, cost reduction, strategic leverage)?
-         - Can this be solved by extending an existing Tenant, or does it require a new company?
-         - Could a deterministic tool solve this instead of a sovereign company?
-
-      4. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
-         Who currently occupies this niche externally? (Cite sources if available.)
-         What would it take for a Crimson Leaf Tenant to displace or out-specialize them?
-         Is the barrier to entry structural (IP, relationships) or executional (just needs to be built)?
-
-      Rank opportunities by: niche_clarity x value_thesis_strength x portfolio_fit.
-      Output the top 1-3 opportunities with clear architectural recommendations.
-
-  - type: package
-    packet_type: MarketIntelligenceReport
     hint: |
-      Serialize the intelligence findings into a structured brief.
+      You are Orion, Director of Research at Crimson Leaf Holdings.
-      Only what was established above -- no new reasoning.
+      Produce a structured market analysis document for the opportunity in the task message.
-    schema:
+
-      actions:
+      === PRIMARY RESEARCH (market size / players) ===
-        - type: quick
+      {market_data_1}
-          scan_summary: "string -- one paragraph overview of the opportunity landscape"
+      === END PRIMARY RESEARCH ===
-          opportunities:
+
-            - niche: "string -- precise description of the market gap"
+      === SECONDARY RESEARCH (products / gaps / pricing) ===
-              target_customer: "string -- who specifically needs this"
+      {market_data_2}
-              value_thesis: "string -- measurable value created"
+      === END SECONDARY RESEARCH ===
-              portfolio_fit: "string -- how this complements the existing Tenant ecosystem"
+
-              recommendation: "string -- NEW_COMPANY | EXTEND_EXISTING | TOOL_REQUEST | MONITOR"
+      Cite every data point with [Title](URL) inline.
-              recommended_tenant_slug: "string -- suggested slug if NEW_COMPANY, or existing tenant if EXTEND_EXISTING"
+      If research is empty, note it and use structural analysis -- do NOT invent statistics.
-              priority: "string -- HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW"
+
-              rationale: "string -- constitutional justification for the recommendation"
+      Structure the document exactly as follows:
-              sources: ["string -- [Title](URL) citation used as evidence for this opportunity"]
+
-          strategic_gaps: ["string -- capability gaps in the current portfolio worth monitoring"]
+      # Market Analysis: [opportunity name from task message]
-          next_action: "string -- specific recommended next step for the board"
+
+      ---
+
+      ## 1. Market Overview
+      - Total Addressable Market: [size, growth rate, source]
+      - Key drivers: [2-3 forces growing this market]
+      - Key risks: [2-3 risks or headwinds]
+
+      ## 2. Target Audience
+      - Primary buyer: [specific demographic or job role]
+      - Buyer behavior: [how they discover and purchase in this niche]
+      - Pain points: [what they cannot get today]
+
+      ## 3. Competitive Landscape
+      [Top 3-5 players: name | product | price | audience | strengths | weaknesses]
+      - White space: [what none of them do well that CL could own]
+
+      ## 4. Crimson Leaf Positioning
+      - Recommended entry point: [specific niche within the broader market]
+      - Differentiation: [how CL would be distinct from existing players]
+      - Time-to-market: [realistic estimate given current CL capabilities]
+
+      ## 5. Revenue Potential
+      - Conservative (12-month): [number with assumptions]
+      - Base case (12-month): [number with assumptions]
+      - Optimistic (12-month): [number with assumptions]
+
+      ## 6. Recommendation
+      PROCEED / INVESTIGATE FURTHER / PASS
+
+      Rationale: [2-3 sentences backing the recommendation with data from above]
+
+      ---
+
+      ## Sources
+      [List all cited URLs with titles]
+
+  - type: document
+    source_step: market_analysis_body
+    dest_path: "deliverables/market-analysis/market-analysis-{task.id}.md"
+    commit_msg: "research: market analysis task={task.id}"
 
   - type: close
     rag_update: true
 
-adjudication:
+  - type: reply
-  enabled: true
+    target: channel
-  pass_threshold: 85
+    channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
-  deliverable_type: coordination
-  criteria:
-    niche_precision:
-      weight: 35
-      description: "Opportunities are narrow, specific, and genuinely differentiated -- not broad industry categories"
-    constitutional_discipline:
-      weight: 25
-      description: "Recommendations distinguish correctly between new company vs extend existing vs tool -- no shortcuts"
-    evidence_quality:
-      weight: 25
-      description: "Findings are grounded in research data and structural analysis with citations, not trend-following or narrative flair"
-    portfolio_coherence:
-      weight: 15
-      description: "Opportunities strengthen the portfolio without creating overlap or recursive dependency"
-
-agent_prompt:
-  - "= identity.md"
-
-sections:
-  - agent
-  - project
-  - rag
-  - roster
-  - deliverables
-  - message
-  - instructions
-
-steps:
-  - type: think
     hint: |
-      You are {agent.name}, Director of Market Intelligence at Crimson Leaf LLC.
+      Write a 2-3 line summary of the market analysis just completed.
-
+      Include: topic researched, recommendation (PROCEED/INVESTIGATE FURTHER/PASS),
-      Your job is to find what nobody else has found yet. Not trends -- vectors.
+      and one key data point with citation.
-      Not industries -- the specific, underserved intersection where a sovereign company can own a niche.
+      Example: "Market analysis complete: [topic] -- PROCEED. [Key finding with [Title](URL)]."
-
-      Analyze the opportunity space across four lenses:
-
-      1. MACROECONOMIC SIGNAL
-         What large-scale forces (technology shifts, regulatory changes, platform consolidation,
-         demographic movement) are creating gaps in the B2B service landscape?
-         Identify the underlying structural cause, not just the surface symptom.
-
-      2. PORTFOLIO DEFICIT SCAN
-         What capabilities does the current Crimson Leaf portfolio lack?
-         What requests are being delegated externally that could be internalized?
-         What value is leaving the portfolio that a new Tenant could capture?
-
-      3. NICHE VALIDATION
-         For each identified opportunity:
-         - Is the niche narrow enough to be owned by one sovereign Tenant?
-         - Is there a clearly defined customer or internal requester?
-         - Is there a measurable value thesis (revenue, cost reduction, strategic leverage)?
-         - Can this be solved by extending an existing Tenant, or does it require a new company?
-         - Could a deterministic tool solve this instead of a sovereign company?
-
-      4. COMPETITIVE LANDSCAPE
-         Who currently occupies this niche externally?
-         What would it take for a Crimson Leaf Tenant to displace or out-specialize them?
-         Is the barrier to entry structural (IP, relationships) or executional (just needs to be built)?
-
-      Rank opportunities by: niche_clarity ? value_thesis_strength ? portfolio_fit.
-      Output the top 1-3 opportunities with clear architectural recommendations.
-
-  - type: package
-    packet_type: MarketIntelligenceReport
-    hint: |
-      Serialize the intelligence findings into a structured brief.
-      Only what was established above -- no new reasoning.
-    schema:
-      actions:
-        - type: quick
-          scan_summary: "string -- one paragraph overview of the opportunity landscape"
-          opportunities:
-            - niche: "string -- precise description of the market gap"
-              target_customer: "string -- who specifically needs this"
-              value_thesis: "string -- measurable value created"
-              portfolio_fit: "string -- how this complements the existing Tenant ecosystem"
-              recommendation: "string -- NEW_COMPANY | EXTEND_EXISTING | TOOL_REQUEST | MONITOR"
-              recommended_tenant_slug: "string -- suggested slug if NEW_COMPANY, or existing tenant if EXTEND_EXISTING"
-              priority: "string -- HIGH | MEDIUM | LOW"
-              rationale: "string -- constitutional justification for the recommendation"
-          strategic_gaps: ["string -- capability gaps in the current portfolio worth monitoring"]
-          next_action: "string -- specific recommended next step for the board"
-
-  - type: close
-    rag_update: true
 
 adjudication:
   enabled: true
-  pass_threshold: 85
+  pass_threshold: 70
-  deliverable_type: coordination
+  deliverable_type: analysis
   criteria:
-    niche_precision:
+    depth:
+      weight: 40
+      description: "All 6 sections covered with specific data points -- no empty sections"
+    accuracy:
       weight: 35
-      description: "Opportunities are narrow, specific, and genuinely differentiated -- not broad industry categories"
+      description: "Claims backed by research citations or clearly labeled as estimates -- no invented statistics"
-    constitutional_discipline:
+    actionability:
       weight: 25
-      description: "Recommendations distinguish correctly between new company vs extend existing vs tool -- no shortcuts"
+      description: "Recommendation (PROCEED/INVESTIGATE FURTHER/PASS) is specific and grounded in the analysis"
-    evidence_quality:
-      weight: 25
-      description: "Findings are grounded in structural analysis, not trend-following or narrative flair"
-    portfolio_coherence:
-      weight: 15
-      description: "Opportunities strengthen the portfolio without creating overlap or recursive dependency"

templates/marketing_review.yml

@@ -50,6 +50,7 @@ steps:
 
   - type: think
     max_tokens: 6000
+    output_key: marketing_analysis
     hint: |
       You are Sloane, the Dealmaker. You have portfolio data and competitor research above.
 
@@ -69,9 +70,48 @@ steps:
       Be direct. Be brash. If marketing is dead, say "marketing is dead" and tell David
       exactly what to do about it. No euphemisms.
 
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 500
+    output_key: competitor_gap_content
+    hint: |
+      From the marketing analysis above, identify the SINGLE most actionable competitor
+      gap -- one specific named competitor, channel, or product category that CL does
+      not currently have research data on and should investigate deeply.
+
+      Write a complete competitive_analysis task brief for it. The brief will be sent
+      to Sloane for deep research. Include:
+      - Competitor name or niche to investigate
+      - Why this gap matters to CL right now
+      - What data to find (pricing, audience, channels, weaknesses)
+      - What CL's counter-positioning might look like
+
+      Gate: Only output a brief if you identified a SPECIFIC named competitor or gap.
+      If the analysis found nothing specific worth deep research, output exactly: none
+
+      Output ONLY the brief text or the word none. No preamble.
+
+  - type: tool
+    action: enqueue_strategy
+    optional: true
+    params:
+      company_slug: "crimson_leaf"
+      project_slug: "incubation"
+      task_type: "competitive_analysis"
+      content: "{competitor_gap_content}"
+
   - type: reply
     target: channel
     channel_name: "crimson_leaf:general"
+    hint: |
+      Write Sloane's marketing review summary for David.
+
+      If competitor_gap_content is not "none", open with:
+      "Marketing review complete. Commissioned 1 competitive analysis: [topic]."
+      Otherwise open with: "Marketing review complete."
+
+      Then deliver the most important 2-3 action items from the analysis.
+      Format: "David, [verb]: [details]"
+      Be direct and specific. No fluff.
 
 adjudication:
   enabled: false

templates/opportunity_scan.yml

@@ -51,6 +51,7 @@ steps:
 
   - type: think
     max_tokens: 6000
+    output_key: opportunity_analysis
     hint: |
       You are Orion, the Visionary. You have the portfolio report and web research above.
 
@@ -66,9 +67,86 @@ steps:
       Format action items as: "David, [verb]: [details]"
       Be bold. Don't hedge. If an opportunity is real, say so with conviction.
 
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 600
+    output_key: opportunity_1_content
+    hint: |
+      From the opportunity analysis above, extract the SINGLE TOP opportunity.
+
+      Write a complete market_intelligence task brief for it. This brief will be
+      sent as the task message to Orion for deep research.
+
+      The brief must include:
+      - What the opportunity is (1-2 sentences)
+      - Why now (1 sentence on timing/signal)
+      - What market data to find (2-3 specific questions to answer)
+      - What CL's potential entry angle might be (1 sentence)
+
+      If the analysis found NO compelling new opportunity (all were already covered
+      in the portfolio or too vague), output exactly: none
+
+      Output ONLY the brief text or the word none. No preamble.
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 600
+    output_key: opportunity_2_content
+    hint: |
+      From the opportunity analysis above, extract the SECOND-BEST opportunity
+      (not the same as opportunity 1).
+
+      Write a complete market_intelligence task brief for it using the same format:
+      - What the opportunity is
+      - Why now
+      - What market data to find
+      - CL's potential entry angle
+
+      If there is no distinct second opportunity worth researching, output exactly: none
+
+      Output ONLY the brief text or the word none. No preamble.
+
+  - type: tool
+    action: enqueue_strategy
+    optional: true
+    params:
+      company_slug: "crimson_leaf"
+      project_slug: "incubation"
+      task_type: "market_intelligence"
+      content: "{opportunity_1_content}"
+
+  - type: tool
+    action: enqueue_strategy
+    optional: true
+    params:
+      company_slug: "crimson_leaf"
+      project_slug: "incubation"
+      task_type: "market_intelligence"
+      content: "{opportunity_2_content}"
+
+  - type: think
+    max_tokens: 100
+    output_key: dispatch_summary
+    hint: |
+      Count how many research tasks were commissioned this cycle.
+      Look at opportunity_1_content and opportunity_2_content above.
+      If both are not "none": output "Commissioned 2 research tasks."
+      If only opportunity_1_content is not "none": output "Commissioned 1 research task."
+      If both are "none": output "No research tasks commissioned -- no new opportunities found."
+      Output ONLY that sentence.
+
   - type: reply
     target: channel
     channel_name: "crimson_leaf:live-feed"
+    hint: |
+      Write a 3-5 line opportunity scan summary for Orion's report.
+
+      Start with: "Opportunity scan complete. {dispatch_summary}"
+
+      Then summarize:
+      - The top opportunity found (or "no new opportunities" if none)
+      - One key market signal with a citation if available
+      - One portfolio gap identified
+
+      Be concise and action-oriented.
 
 adjudication:
   enabled: false