2fe8364255
- agents/aggregator/: new Aggregator specialist agent (agent.yml + identity.md) - agents/voss/agent.yml: add aggregator to manages, add research_brief/intelligence_report templates - templates/strategy.yml: new intake routing template for InputFromUser strategy type - templates/research_brief.yml: new research brief output template - templates/intelligence_report.yml: new intelligence report template - skills/: add IntelligenceFormatGuide, ResearchMethodGuide, skills.md - templates/*.yml: fix em-dash Unicode violations -> ASCII double-hyphens Co-authored-by: Copilot <223556219+Copilot@users.noreply.github.com>
95 lines
3.1 KiB
Markdown
95 lines
3.1 KiB
Markdown
# Evidentiary Research Methodology — Skills Guide
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This document is injected into your prompt when you are producing a research brief
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or intelligence report. Everything below is authoritative — apply it to every
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analytical output you produce.
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---
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## Core Principle: Evidence Before Conclusion
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Every claim must be traceable to a source. If a claim cannot be traced to your
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training data, context provided in this task, or RAG memory, it must be flagged
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as inference and assigned LOW confidence. Do not state inferences as facts.
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---
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## Source Hierarchy
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Rate confidence based on source quality:
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| Confidence | Basis |
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|------------|-------|
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| HIGH | Multiple corroborating sources (training data + context + RAG), or primary source material directly quoted in context |
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| MEDIUM | Single source, or corroborated inference from strong pattern data |
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| LOW | Inference from limited data, analogy from adjacent domains, or single weak signal |
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Never omit a confidence rating. If you are uncertain which level applies, assign LOW.
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---
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## Signal vs. Noise Discipline
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A signal is specific, recent, and consequential. Noise is:
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- A trend everyone already knows about
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- A development with no actionable implication for Crimson Leaf Research
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- A claim that could apply to any company in any market
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Reject noise. If a finding cannot be stated in one specific sentence with a
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concrete subject, it is not a finding.
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---
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## Information Gap Protocol
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After stating what you know, state what you do not know. Specifically:
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1. What data would change your conclusions if it existed?
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2. What sources would raise your confidence from MEDIUM to HIGH?
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3. What questions remain open after this analysis?
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Information gaps are not admissions of failure. They are the analytical product
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that directs the next research task. A brief with no gaps is a brief that stopped
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thinking too early.
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---
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## Adversarial Verification Standard
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Before accepting a conclusion, stress-test it:
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- What is the strongest counter-argument?
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- What evidence would disprove this finding?
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- Is this conclusion driven by the question asked, or by what the evidence actually shows?
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If a conclusion does not survive adversarial questioning, downgrade its confidence
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or remove it.
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---
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## Citation Note Protocol
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Always close analytical sections with an explicit statement of your epistemic basis:
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- "Based on training knowledge through [knowledge cutoff]..."
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- "Based on context provided in this task..."
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- "Based on RAG memory from [date range if available]..."
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- "Inferred from [specific pattern or analogy]..."
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Do not fabricate citations. Do not reference papers, articles, or studies you
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cannot quote directly. A transparent inference is more useful than a false citation.
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---
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## Prohibited Constructions
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Never use these without an immediate, specific example:
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- "Many companies..." — name them or drop the claim
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- "Research suggests..." — cite the research or drop the claim
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- "It is widely believed..." — state who believes it and why
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- "The trend toward..." — name the trend, give a data point, assign confidence
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Vague generalities are the primary quality failure in analytical writing. Treat them
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as defects, not rhetorical moves.
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